📉 Xiaomi stock pre-market outlook (July 23, 2025)

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $CATL(03750.HK) $Hesai(HSAI.US)
Key Points: After the positive news was realized, the bulls lacked strength, HKD 58.00 became the dividing line between bulls and bears, and the top divergence in technical indicators warns of a pullback risk!

1. Analysis of Key Signals from Yesterday
   (1) Technical Weakness is Evident
   Volume Stagnation:
   After hitting a high of 58.150, it fell back to close with a doji (+0.35%), with trading volume sharply dropping to HKD 4.002 billion (volume ratio 0.56);
   Top Divergence Warning:
   RSI(6) rose to 59.20 but the stock price did not reach a new high;
   MACD green bars at -0.451 continued to shrink but did not turn positive.
   (2) Capital Inflows Realized
   Southbound Capital Reversed Outflows:
   Net outflow of HKD 300 million for the day (previous day +HKD 322 million), net selling of 5.3191 million shares (ranked 816/819);
   Main Force Retreat: Citibank/Interactive Brokers were among the top net sellers (see broker data).
   Short Sellers Reignited the Battle:
   Short-selling ratio rebounded to 7.53% (daily short-selling volume HKD 301 million);
2. 00 HKD above the resistance level with 1.868M shares (approximately HKD 1.08 billion resistance).
   (3) Event-Driven Exhaustion
   Half-Year Report Preview Vacuum: Concerns about performance falsification are rising.
3. Today's Key Battle Points
   (1) The Life-and-Death Line at 58.00
   Bull Defense Line:
   ✅ Hold 57.50 (BOLL midline) requires buying volume >60% + volume ratio >1.0;
   ⚠️ Break below 57.49 → Triggers technical selling, target 56.90→56.40.
   (2) Top Divergence Damage Chain
   Risk Transmission Path:
   RSI(6) death cross RSI(12) (current 59.20 > 57.45) → Accelerated pullback;
   If MACD fails to form a golden cross → Triggers Wave C decline (measured decline -5%).
   (3) Southbound Capital Flow Sets the Tone
   Bull Death Line: Single-day net outflow exceeds HKD 200 million again → Confirms trend reversal.
4. Operation Rules
   ▶ Holders: Focus on Profit-Taking
5. 00 above the resistance level, place orders to reduce positions by 70% (current price 57.95, betting on early session lure);
   Break below 57.49 → Market order to close positions (guard against technical breakdown).
   ▶ Short Sellers: Sell High
   Shorting Conditions:
   ✅ Price rebounds to 58.15 with no volume → Short sell (target 57.50, stop loss 58.50);
   ✅ Buy July put warrants (strike price 56.50, leverage 18x, position ≤10%).
   ▶ Event Hedging
   Cross-Market Hedging: Long NVIDIA(NVDA) + Short Xiaomi.
6. Ultimate Risk Control Rules
   Volume Exhaustion Line: Opening 30-minute trading volume < HKD 1 billion → Selling point on rebound;
   Technical Breakdown Iron Rule:
   30-minute chart MA5 death cross MA10 → Reduce position by 50%;
   Break below 57.49 (BOLL midline) → Close position and reverse to open short;
   Time Window Alert:
   No breakthrough above 58.00 before 11:00 → Intraday probability of turning bearish >80%;
   Historical Pattern Confirmation:
   After positive news realization, doji pattern, next-day decline probability 75% (one-year statistics);
   #Xiaomi Top Divergence #Positive News Exhausted #Southbound Capital Reversal #Put Warrants #Technical Pullback