$Microsoft(MSFT.US) After it goes above 500, I will start to gradually reduce my position and close it completely before 600: because above 600, it gradually deviates from the original purpose of my arbitrage.

The risk for Microsoft lies in the fact that its actual revenue is too tightly bound to OpenAI. Although Microsoft realized this problem very early on, whether through some actions or reassurances during conference calls, they are trying hard to decouple from OpenAI, but as a large enterprise, especially Microsoft, execution is not that easy.

And friends who know me well know that I have always viewed OpenAI as the most uncertain risk factor in this round of the AI craze. If the operational explosion of one or two companies would burst the bubble of the entire AI narrative, this unstable company with too broad connection points is OpenAI. This doesn't mean OpenAI will definitely explode, but in terms of overall position allocation, you need to spend more effort to find positions that are weakly correlated or even negatively correlated with it to balance.

Before this round of AI narrative reaches a state of utter chaos, Microsoft will only be my main arbitrage target, rather than a long-term investment target. After the risks are released, we can sit down again if fate allows to talk about Microsoft's future story.