$NIO Inc(NIO.US) Q2 revenue is highly likely to meet the guidance, while deliveries fell short but revenue may be compensated by high ASP.

Judgment: Cautiously optimistic.

Do not directly turn bearish on Nio just because Q2 deliveries were below guidance; the real focus should be on the revenue and gross margin confirmed in the Q2 earnings report.

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Data Basis

Q2 Actual Deliveries

• Data: 107,658 units

Q2 Delivery Guidance

• Data: 110,000–115,000 units

Met Delivery Guidance?

• Data: No

Q2 Revenue Guidance

• Data: 32.777–34.436 billion yuan

Nio Brand June ASP

• Data: 443,000 yuan

Q1 Nio Brand ASP

• Data: 390,000 yuan

Based on calculations:

Nio Brand Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Estimate: ~24.9 billion yuan

Ledao Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Estimate: ~7.0 billion yuan

Firefly Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Estimate: ~2.1–2.8 billion yuan

Q2 Total Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Estimate: ~34.0–34.7 billion yuan

Q2 Non-Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Estimate: ~2.5–3.2 billion yuan

Q2 Total Revenue Estimate

• Estimate: ~36.5–37.9 billion yuan

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Risk Exposure

The core risk is: The ASP calculation may not be fully consistent with the revenue recognized in the financial report.

Main risks:

1. There are no official monthly ASP figures for the Nio brand in April and May; I used Q1's 390,000 yuan as a proxy.

2. The ASP for Ledao and Firefly is estimated; BaaS, battery leasing, and subsidies will affect recognized revenue.

3. Q2 deliveries were below guidance, and the market may trade negatively in the short term.

4. If the Q2 vehicle gross margin is below 16%, it cannot be optimistic even if revenue meets the target.

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Next Steps

My judgment: Q2 revenue is highly likely to exceed the upper end of the guidance, but we need to wait for the earnings report for verification.

Focus on 3 numbers:

Q2 Total Revenue

• Judgment line: ≥34.4 billion yuan is positive

Vehicle Gross Margin

• Judgment line: ≥18% is strong validation

Non-Vehicle Sales Revenue

• Judgment line: ≥2.8 billion yuan is normal

Trading action: Wait and see.

Only consider it as a mispriced opportunity if the market sells off due to "deliveries below guidance" but the earnings report revenue and gross margin are not bad.