The loss comes from something with a very tongue-twisting name but a simple principle — high-end memory for AI (HBM), which is extremely "material-consuming" to produce.

To give an analogy of our own. For the same silicon wafer (the raw material for making chips), if used to make regular memory, you can get one whole piece; but if you take it to make HBM for AI, because it stacks over a dozen layers of chips like a mille-feuille, to produce the same capacity, it consumes the material of three to four wafers. This isn't something I'm making up; this is a number disclosed by Micron itself — the industry now calls it the "three-to-one rule": every additional unit of high-end AI memory produced equals consuming the production capacity for three units of regular memory.

$Samsung Electronics (SSNGY.US)$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$Micron Tech(MU.US)

LongPort - 熊猫校长Ming
熊猫校长Ming

韩国拼命扩产存储,我却第一次觉得:真的不够了。

昨天,韩国总统亲自站出来,把三星和海力士的两位掌门人请到身边,宣布了一件大事:未来五年,把韩国的存储产能,翻一倍。五千多亿美元,四座新工厂。按常理,这是天大的利好 —— 存储厂要大干快上了。可市场一点都没兴奋,反而掉头就跌:三星当天跌了近 5%,海力士盘中一度跌了 6%。所有人都在怕同一件事 —— 又要扩产、又要过剩、又要崩了。可我脑子里冒出来的第一个念头,恰恰相反:如果连韩国这么拼命地扩...

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