Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded somewhat.

During the holiday, I've seen ships from different countries starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz one after another. This still cannot be considered a signal that Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz. It may just be based on diplomatic negotiations with some countries, granting temporary passage to some ships, particularly those transporting emergency supplies.

Donald Trump has again stated that if no agreement is reached within the next 48 hours, there will be larger-scale bombing of Iran. However, currently, the likelihood of reaching an agreement seems quite low.

In the next two weeks, there might be an "ultimate showdown." If this two-week showdown still cannot determine a winner, I estimate Trump won't keep pushing hard either. He will unilaterally declare victory and then withdraw.

However, this does not mean the impact of the war ends here. The restoration of related infrastructure and the smooth recovery of the supply chain will take time. This is also why Goldman Sachs expects that (even if the war ends in the first half of the year), oil prices will still be around $70-80 by the end of this year.

(Not for investment purposes)