BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 02.10
Over the past week, BTC rebounded after touching bottom at $60k and ETH at $1.7k, which, in the absence of other negative catalysts, can be considered a stage bottom. Although still in a bear market, there are some positive macro developments. This Tuesday, the White House will hold its second mediation session within February to help banks and the crypto industry reach a consensus as soon as possible on the legislation of the Clarity Act. Recently, Besant also publicly spoke out, directly targeting Coinbase, calling its CEO a recalcitrant actor hindering the passage of the bill, and stated that the Clarity Act is a key agenda item for Trump's crypto push. The White House's mediation also represents the strongest regulatory signal; let's see if there will be any substantive progress this month. Starting from this year's Davos Forum, the main narratives surrounding crypto have been stablecoins and tokenization, but these two narratives are actually not closely related to BTC and are more tied to ETH. Currently, ETH/BTC has fallen to 0.029, hitting a low for the past six months. As these two mainstream narratives advance, I am looking forward to ETH/BTC rebounding to the 0.04～0.05 range, which is also the core reason why I believe ETH will outperform BTC.
Beyond the regulatory front, MrBeast's acquisition of Step, officially entering the savings, credit, and trading business for minors aged 13-18, is also a landmark event. I've discussed this in this post as well
Each generation has its own wallet. The intergenerational transfer of financial accounts lies in becoming the traffic gateway for a generation. Tom Lee has a macro analysis background and focuses more on medium-to-long-term trends, including demographic shifts. I think this is also the main reason for BMNR's investment in MrBeast, because Beast represents the traffic and trust gateway for the new generation of youth.
This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.32 million coins, with a weekly increase of 40k last week; cash position is $595 million. There were no new staking additions, staking amount remains at 2.89 million (67% of total coin holdings), staking yield increased to 3.11%, and mNAV recovered to 1.02. Analysis of the cash position changes indicates that BMNR utilized the brief window where mNAV>1 last week for ATM financing. Currently, market sentiment is weak. MSTR and BMNR are the only steadfast buyers for BTC and ETH respectively. Maintaining a weekly DCA of 40k is also crucial for ETH's market sentiment. This Friday is the deadline for institutional 13F filings; tracking of changes in institutional holdings of BMNR will be updated next week.
Currently, mNAV is stable around 1, moving proportionally with ETH. ETH's trend is BMNR's trend. If there is no major shift in market sentiment, mNAV is unlikely to experience significant volatility. Therefore, I'm temporarily pausing the projection of extreme value ranges and just lying flat, following ETH's fluctuations$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
Not investment advice.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
