With the entry of Stock Connect and order volume expanding again, how much higher can Geek+ valuation soar?

Between the capital market and fundamentals, there is always a node that investors regard as a "signal": it is neither simple financial figures nor temporary market sentiment, but the moment when growth logic and valuation support simultaneously emerge.

February 5 and 6, 2026, marked such a node for the intelligent robotics company Geek+ (02590.HK): the company announced that its total orders for 2025 exceeded RMB 4.137 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%. On the same day, it was officially included in the Stock Connect list, meaning mainland capital could directly invest in this leader of the "AI + robotics" sector, with both capital and fundamentals firing on all cylinders.

Behind the RMB 4.1 billion orders lies a global growth system

What supports the RMB 4.1 billion orders and the upward-trending market performance since its IPO is not the explosion of a single market but a systematic global growth logic.

Emerging markets have become a strong engine for growth. According to the company's announcement, in 2025, Geek+ secured over RMB 600 million in orders in Latin America and nearly RMB 500 million in Eastern Europe, both setting historical records.

Behind these numbers is the effective implementation of Geek+'s incremental market strategy. The commonality of these two regions lies in the rapid development stage of e-commerce and logistics, with significant gaps remaining in automation infrastructure.

The Latin American market was even once identified by reports from institutions like eMarketer as the fastest-growing region for global retail e-commerce, but its logistics automation level lags severely. Geek+ began its forward-looking layout in 2020, and after five years, its localized service network is now entering the harvest period, successfully capitalizing on the time gap between the e-commerce boom and infrastructure upgrades in the region.

This "dual-engine" model—where mature markets provide the baseline and high margins while emerging markets contribute high increments—effectively smooths regional economic volatility risks and provides diversification and resilience to revenue.

While consolidating its traditional strongholds in e-commerce, fast-moving consumer goods, and third-party logistics, Geek+ has also broadened its moat through industry depth. Recently, it successfully secured a project worth approximately RMB 200 million from a global food and beverage giant, marking another breakthrough in a niche segment.

The food and beverage industry has high-frequency, rigid demand and is relatively less affected by economic cycles, with stable and sustained demand for logistics automation. This collaboration serves as an endorsement from a top-tier client for the maturity of Geek+'s technical solutions in complex, high-difficulty scenarios, likely paving the way for deeper penetration into the broader consumer market.

In addition, Geek+ disclosed a strategic cooperation agreement with a global leading e-commerce company, committing to annual purchases of robotics products and intelligent solutions worth hundreds of millions of RMB, with both parties jointly promoting the replication and expansion of global projects.

This "joint global expansion" model is proof of both product standardization capabilities and customer trust, also indicating that Geek+'s solutions have deeply embedded themselves into the core of customers' global supply chains, achieving "infrastructure-like" stickiness. Data shows that as of the first half of 2025, Geek+'s overall customer repurchase rate exceeded 80%, with key customer repurchase rates reaching 84.3%.

In summary, these layouts demonstrate a more mature growth logic: not just pursuing individual orders but building a business ecosystem capable of weathering cycles, expanding scenarios, and deepening collaborations.

Institutional consensus forms: Geek+'s profitability path is clear

"Impressive order growth" is the first step, but there is often a difficult "chasm" between growth and actual profitability realization. Geek+'s situation is showing a profitability inflection signal that the market is gradually understanding.

In the first half of 2025, Geek+'s adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time, a rare occurrence in the capital market's robotics sector. Meanwhile, overseas market revenue accounted for over 79%, with gross margins reaching 46%, indicating that high-value-added businesses are becoming a key driver of profit growth.

This structure is precisely what many long-term investors focus on. While the business model is streamlined, growth is not solely achieved through price competition for scale but steadily advanced alongside high margins and a high-repurchase customer ecosystem.

Huatai Securities' research report points out that through its fully self-developed software, hardware, and algorithm platform, Geek+ has achieved robot cluster scheduling capabilities and warehouse space utilization far exceeding industry averages. Its modular, standardized product design gives project deployment significant scale effects, which is the intrinsic reason for its gross margin rising from 30.8% in 2023 to 35.1% in the first half of 2025.

Looking at the global AMR sector, Geek+ faces a vast blue ocean of incremental growth and stock replacement. According to CIC's predictions, the global warehouse automation market's CAGR from 2024 to 2029 will be 11.3%, with AMR, as the fastest-growing category, reaching a CAGR of 33.1%. Currently, about 80% of global warehouses are not yet automated, with stock replacement potential exceeding RMB 2 trillion.

In this highly fragmented and fiercely competitive market, Geek+ has established a leading head effect with its seven consecutive years as the global market share leader, full-stack technological barriers, and a customer repurchase rate as high as 80%. Compared to models like Symbotic, which focus on system integration, Geek+'s integrated software-hardware solutions offer stronger standardization capabilities and superior profitability elasticity.

Mainstream institutions have formed a clear consensus on its profitability path. China Merchants Securities expects it to achieve adjusted profitability in the 2025 fiscal year and enter the scaled profitability stage in 2026; Daiwa Securities emphasizes its rapid order growth in key markets and high, hard-to-replicate technological barriers, which will help improve gross margins; Bank of America Securities predicts the company's EPS growth could reach 55% by 2028. Huatai Securities explicitly favors its three core values: "high-growth sector, strong technological barriers, and established profitability inflection point."

Such forecasts show that professional institutions are viewing Geek+'s growth rate as sustainable and possessing mid-to-long-term valuation uplift logic.

Stock Connect inclusion may further lift valuation center

Inclusion in the Stock Connect program, for all high-quality Hong Kong-listed stocks, is technically a process of "expanding the investable pool." But for new economy stocks like Geek+, its significance carries more structural influence.

Inclusion in Stock Connect means mainland institutions and individual investors can more directly participate in trading the stock, substantially boosting liquidity and valuation. After the company was included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, it already gained increased institutional attention and passive fund allocation; Stock Connect further activates broader investor participation willingness.

Especially in today's market structure, which is trending toward broad-based, Stock Connect eligibility is often linked to the allocation preferences of long-term capital like A-share funds and insurance funds, which have higher tolerance and logical support for valuation fluctuations.

As of now, the intelligent robotics sector in the Hong Kong market is still in its early development stage. Although several related companies have entered the capital market, firms like Geek+—with significant order growth, improved profit structures, and valuations widely favored by mainstream institutions—remain relatively scarce. The overall scale of China's robotics market is viewed optimistically by many, and as one of the core automation sectors, AMR still has significant penetration potential.

Against this backdrop, Stock Connect inclusion is not just a broadening of investment channels but could also become an important driver for Geek+'s sustained upward valuation trajectory.