Why I choose to stay

Before you read further, ask yourself a question

What do you expect the price of Bitcoin to be in 2030?

200K? 500K? 1M?

If your answer is lower than these, then you can leave.

If your answer is 500K, then why aren't you buying now?

Because 2030 is too far, and 2026 is too close.

You're greedy, you want to make the fucking most.

It's fine, I'm not writing this to convince you to buy BTC today.

Most wealth effects come from the spillover of BTC's upward momentum

You don't need innovation in crypto to get rich—just BTC going up is enough.

After the DeFi Summer of 2018,

every wave of wealth effects has come from the capital and sentiment spillover of BTC's rise—not innovation.

-August 2023 - March 2024

BTC ETF approval, BTC rose from 25,000 to 70,000, the "Inscription Frenzy" created massive wealth effects.

-September 2024 - February 2025

Trump was elected US President, BTC rose from 50,000 to 100,000, the "AI meme frenzy" created massive wealth effects, and Trump's coin launch multiplied this effect tenfold.

You might argue, aren't inscriptions and AI memes innovations?

Touch your head and conscience—if BTC doesn't rise, will the ORDI in your hands rise?

During that major uptrend, even without inscriptions or AI memes, there would've been plenty of other things labeled "innovative" and pumped hard.

Don't you think if BTC had risen from 80K to 100K last week, Molt and Clawd would already be $1B+ assets?

Many are bearish on crypto, saying they'll leave, mostly for reasons like:

No innovation, stagnant, boomer assets, inferior to AI.

I can tell you clearly—innovation will come, but even if it doesn't,

once BTC rises, tons of things labeled "innovative" will emerge to fulfill your fantasies.

Betting Frequency and Positive Feedback Time

Those who made tens or hundreds of millions and left can comfortably earn 10-20% annualized returns in US stocks.

But I ask you, who are shouting about leaving—how much have you made?

Many call crypto a casino—well, I say this casino is fucking amazing.

In US or A-shares, how many 10x opportunities do you get a year?

How long do you need to hold for a 10x? A year? Two?

Can you hold? Do you have the patience and discipline?

Here, even in the worst markets, you get a 10x chance every month,

and sometimes you don't even have time to sell before it 10x's.

Most only focus on win rate and odds—to me, crypto's most broken aspect is positive feedback speed.

Others take years to 10x, enduring unimaginable tests of will and human nature.

Here, you can 10x in just days,

which is why many "idiots" you think lack understanding can still make money—

because there are so many bets to make, and 10x's happen so fast, the "idiots" get paid before they can mess up.

After that, as long as they don't over-leverage, they can lose many, many times.

No other market offers this many betting opportunities and feedback this fast.

You Can't Only Be Confident After Winning

December 12, 2024

Peacock Theater, Los Angeles,

TGA officially announced Astro Bot won 2024 Game of the Year,

while the crowd-favorite Black Myth: Wukong lost.

Later, Feng Ji of Game Science published that famous article.

He said:

"You can't only be confident when you win—

that's not confidence, that's just repeating the result."

This article was written on February 3, 2026, with BTC at 78,483.

We're already at the bottom—though I don't know how much lower it'll go, it doesn't matter, because we'll win in the end.

Source: @nbblock