$Sandisk(SNDK.US) Micron has released its earnings report, and I thought about how Sandisk's spot price rose by 50% in November, so it should be doing well. But, it's really unclear when China will ramp up production, and with PCs and phones getting more expensive, it's hard to say how long this can last. Based on my previous view, Sandisk should drop after the Fed and Micron's earnings reports. But, here's the thing—so many people have been buying back and forth between 190-205 these past two weeks, giving a sense of a bottom. Plus, with Christmas coming, short sellers are on holiday early, so it might not drop too much. For a pure consumer storage chip like this, it all depends on when China ramps up production—that's when it'll drop to $50.

Anyway, if it were me, I'd only short it in theory, not in practice, and I'd never trade this stock.