Why is the Hong Kong Stock Market Slumping? Labubu Unveils First Online Pre-Sale | Today's Important News Recap

0619 | Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations. However, the dot plot indicates that the expectation for rate cuts within the year has been revised down from two to one. Powell emphasized "data dependency" and mentioned that geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies exacerbate inflation uncertainty. The continuity of this policy leaves uncertainty about future economic trends, with Hong Kong stock market sentiment remaining subdued due to the influence of Fed policy and geopolitical risks.

2. The Middle East situation continues to escalate, with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei refusing "unconditional surrender" and warning the U.S. of "irreparable losses" if military intervention occurs. Trump stated that he might join forces with Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, but his ambiguous stance increases policy uncertainty. If the U.S. directly intervenes in the conflict, the risk of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100, exacerbating global stagflation pressures. Geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, reducing investor preference for risk assets, while the safe-haven attributes of gold stocks and oil and gas equipment stocks become prominent.

🐬 Individual Stocks

1.$POP MART(09992.HK)

On the evening of June 18, Pop Mart's popular IP Labubu's third-generation vinyl plush product "High Energy Ahead" series launched its first global online pre-sale. It covers platforms such as Tmall flagship store and official mini-program, with pre-sale delivery scheduled from mid-August to late September. This pre-sale adopts a "no-notice surprise launch" strategy, with sales exceeding 700,000 units on the Tmall channel alone, driving the Pop Mart app to the top of the shopping chart on the U.S. App Store. Labubu's first online pre-sale is a significant innovation in Pop Mart's sales model, providing a demand forecasting tool to help optimize overseas factory capacity allocation (Vietnam factory capacity ramping up), reducing inventory backlog risk.

2.$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)

Marvell announced at Investor Day that it has raised the potential market size for data centers in 2028 from $75 billion to $94 billion, sending a clear signal that "Marvell is no longer just a chip design company but a key infrastructure partner in building the computing power base for AI companies." The core support for this adjustment is the global debut of its 2nm custom SRAM—this product reduces power consumption by 66% through silicon integration technology, saves 15% in chip area, directly enhances XPU performance, and reduces overall data center costs. Marvell's stock price rose over 7% last night, with short-term sentiment high, but caution is advised as slower-than-expected AI business growth in subsequent quarters could trigger a pullback.

3.$Lululemon(LULU.US)

Lululemon is undergoing a structural reorganization, cutting 150 corporate-level positions, with affected employees primarily responsible for supporting store operations. This adjustment is partly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies on its supply chain and cost structure, prompting the company to optimize internally to alleviate pressure. Additionally, increased uncertainty in the current consumer market, with heightened sensitivity to price and product innovation, has also driven Lululemon to streamline its structure to enhance competitiveness.

🐬 Leading Sectors

Shanghai and Shenzhen: Oil and gas refining and sales, diversified utilities, energy equipment and services;

Hong Kong stocks: Forest products, food distributors, motorcycle manufacturers;

U.S. stocks: Commercial and residential mortgage financing, leisure facilities such as stadiums, motorcycle manufacturers.

🐬 Focus for Tomorrow

1. China's one-year loan prime rate.

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