Pop Mart$POP MART(09992.HK) released its operational data announcement for the first quarter of 2025, with overall revenue (unaudited) expected to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year, of which China is expected to grow by 95%-100% and overseas by 475%-480%. Although the company did not disclose the operational data for the same period in the first quarter of 2024, the performance from the third and fourth quarters of last year, along with the overall performance from the first half of last year, is sufficient to indicate that Pop Mart continues to thrive under the drive of multi-category expansion and market penetration, and has not yet reached its ceiling.

Domestically, based on an 80% year-on-year increase in the second half of 2024, Q1 in China has accelerated again to 95%-100% quarter-on-quarter. This indicates that the core driver remains the "terrifying" per-store efficiency, despite no significant increase in the number of stores. The rapid growth in per-store efficiency comes from the diversified monetization capabilities of Pop Mart's popular IPs (plush toys, jewelry, building blocks, etc.), which Dolphin Research has consistently emphasized. Taking Pop Mart's largest IP—The Monsters—as an example, Q1 Labubu's plush toys have launched series such as Coca-Cola and chess, continuously attracting a large number of consumers.

Overseas, Pop Mart has accelerated its store opening pace in Europe and the United States. Based on channel research information, the company has recently expanded its stores significantly in areas with a large Chinese population, such as California, Texas, and New York, and has established robot stores in potential expansion cities like Washington, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. According to information from the conference call, the revenue from the North American market in a single Q1 (around 700 million yuan) is already close to last year's total performance. With the momentum to open 40 stores by the end of the year (currently only 20 stores in North America), it is entirely possible to expect North America to become the "second Southeast Asian market."

Finally, based on Q1 performance, Dolphin Research has revised up Pop Mart's profit forecast. Under neutral expectations, Pop Mart's stock price could reach around 250. In an optimistic scenario, if overseas store openings are relaxed and brand momentum continues to be released, it could exceed 300.