POP MART$POP MART(09992.HK) released its operating data announcement for the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue (unaudited) increasing by 165%-170% year-on-year, including a 95%-100% increase in China and a 475%-480% increase overseas. Although the company did not disclose the operating data for the same period in Q1 2024, combined with the performance of Q3 and Q4 in the second half of last year and the overall performance of the first half of last year, it is enough to show that POP MART is still experiencing explosive growth driven by multi-category expansion and market expansion, and is far from reaching its ceiling.

Domestically, on the basis of an 80% year-on-year high growth in the second half of 2024, Q1 domestic growth accelerated sequentially to 95%-100%. Without a significant increase in the number of stores, this indicates that the core driver is still the "terrifying" sales per square foot. The rapid growth in sales per square foot stems from the diversified monetization capabilities of POP MART's hit IPs (plush toys, jewelry, building blocks, etc.), as emphasized by Dolphin Research. Taking POP MART's top IP—The Monsters as an example, Q1 saw the launch of Labubu plush toys in Coca-Cola and chess series, which continued to attract a large number of consumers.

Overseas, POP MART has accelerated the pace of store openings in Europe and the U.S. According to channel research, the company has recently expanded significantly in areas with large Chinese populations, such as California, Texas, and New York, and has set up robot stores in potential expansion cities like Washington, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. Based on information from the earnings call, the revenue from the North American market in Q1 alone (approximately 700 million yuan) has already approached last year's full-year performance. With the momentum of expanding to 40 stores by the end of the year (currently only 20 stores in North America), it is entirely possible to expect North America to become the "second Southeast Asian market."

Finally, based on Q1 performance, Dolphin Research has raised its profit forecast for POP MART. Under a neutral expectation, POP MART's stock price could reach around 250. In an optimistic scenario, if overseas store openings are accelerated and brand momentum continues to be released, it could exceed 300.