Dolphin Research
2025.01.08 07:25

With the push of the current AI computing power revolution, customized ASIC chips have gradually attracted market attention, and Dolphin has also prioritized its focus on $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US).

Despite the poor performance of the company's traditional business, the stock price has continued to rise, mainly because the market's primary focus is on the growth potential of the data center business (which has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 80% for the past three quarters). The data center business can be divided into two parts: ASIC and other businesses:

1. ASIC Business: Benefiting from the mass production and shipment of ASIC products by Amazon and Google, the company has entered the first tier of ASIC design, with a current market share in the single digits. However, with the growing demand from major cloud service providers, the company is expected to further expand its customer base and scale. The company anticipates a 45% compound growth rate for the overall ASIC market between 2023 and 2028, and it expects its long-term market share to exceed 20%, thus the compound annual growth rate of the company's ASIC revenue over the next five years will surpass the industry average of 45%.

2. Other Businesses: Before the ramp-up of ASIC, the company's data center business mainly consisted of optical products, switching chips, etc. Currently, the optical module DSP chips hold the market's top position; switching chips are also in the first tier, slightly behind Broadcom, lagging by about a year; although storage products were Marvell's foundational products, the company's storage business has declined to about 10% due to the decline of hard drives.

The company began strategic adjustments in 2016, and by 2024, 70% of the company's total revenue is expected to come from the data center business, with the business adjustment nearly complete. As AI demand grows and major customers deepen their ties, the company's performance will continue to benefit from the growth of ASIC and data center businesses in the future.

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