UBS: Micron & Memory
> BM Pricing & Premiums: Industry blended HBM ASP is up approximately 79% year-over-year, with HBM4E likely reaching >$30/GB.> DRAM & NAND Contract Pricing:For DDR, industry C3Q contract pricing (including LTAs) is modeled up 20% Q/Q, with MU specifically modeled up 20% Q/Q in C3Q and 11% Q/Q in C4Q.For NAND, industry C3Q contract pricing is modeled up 20% Q/Q (down from 28% prior), and for MU specifically up 23% Q/Q (down from 35% prior).Market Dynamics> DRAM Tightness: HBM supply and demand have tightened beyond prior expectations, specifically for HBM4 and HBM4E, led by persistent supply tightness.> HBM Consumption & Adjustments: C2027 HBM consumption is increasing from 58.7B Gb to 61.5B Gb, and MU HBM ASP is now modeled up 72% year-over-year (vs. +61% prior) with broadly unchanged bit shipments of ~11.65B Gb.> NAND & SSD Strength: Stronger-than-expected server/storage SSD demand is offsetting weakness in PCs and smartphones, keeping the demand backdrop constructive.> Competitor Impact: CXMT's DRAM bit supply share is expected to rise from ~7% in C2025 to ~9% in C2027, though capacity expansions are viewed as somewhat overstated due to yield and technology gaps. Meanwhile, YMTC is shifting incremental capacity toward DRAM over NAND, extending the NAND pricing cycle.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
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