StockMarket.News
2025.09.29 14:11

September 2025 is shaping up to be a major test for the U.S. labor market and the Fed. Job growth is slowing, unemployment is rising, and it’s all happening while Washington faces the risk of a government shutdown. The September jobs report could decide whether another rate cut comes at the Fed’s October meeting.

Economists expect around 50,000 new jobs in September, a number that lines up with the weak three-month trend. Payroll growth has now stayed under 100,000 for half a year, with June’s figure revised to the lowest since 2020. Most forecasts fall between 45,000 and 54,000, and any gains are likely to come from narrow sectors like hospitality instead of broad hiring across the economy.

Unemployment is expected to stick at 4.3 percent, the highest in four years. The steady climb since early 2024 shows how slower hiring and a growing labor force are pushing joblessness higher. At the same time, job openings are dropping to their lowest since 2021, after July’s number slipped to 7.18 million. Companies are clearly cutting back on demand for workers as costs rise and revenues soften.

A possible government shutdown adds another layer of uncertainty. If Congress fails to pass a spending bill, official jobs data and other key reports would be frozen, leaving markets and policymakers blind at a critical moment. That would complicate the Fed’s decision as it weighs whether to cut again on October 29.

The Fed already cut rates once this year, and the odds of another move are growing as the labor market weakens. Investors are paying close attention to revisions in the jobs data after recent surprises to the downside. A little sector-specific strength is not enough to hide the broader slowdown.

This week is packed with labor-focused numbers, JOLTS and consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP jobs and manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s September report, assuming a shutdown doesn’t block it.

Source: StockMarket.News

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