BARCLAYS ON POSSIBLE US GOVT SHUTDOWN🔸 Rates markets may see shutdown as tilting Fed policy toward easing.🔸 High chance of Oct 1 shutdown, likely ≥5 days; could last longer.🔸 Each week cuts GDP growth ~0.1pp; usually recovered later.🔸 Key data (jobs report, CPI, retail sales) would be delayed.🔸 OMB memo allows termination (not just furlough) of nonessential staff → bigger economic hit.🔸 Limited Q4 GDP impact, but employment data may be distorted.