We continue to post on $Tesla(TSLA.US) because many of our followers ask us daily what might be a good re-entry point.
We would venture a TSLA re-entry price in the $250 range (-30% from our $358 exit) after the new more affordable TSLA is announced and turns out to be a lower cost model Y or model 3 and not a new form factor. If the 2023-2024 price-cutting experience repeats, a lower-priced, lower cost model won’t expand TSLA TAM or generate incremental volume since it will merely cannibalize the higher priced trims. On the other hand, a new TSLA form factor (e.g. hatchback, lower-priced traditional pickup) that attracts new customer segments to the brand would likely be accretive to volumes. We expect TSLA 2Q delivs due out next week to disappoint (our 2Q delivs est 370K -17% YoY vs WS consensus 385K -13% YoY).
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