I conducted an industry survey on TSMC and Nvidia

I conducted an industry survey on TSMC and Nvidia with the following takeaways: 

1. TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged (gradually increasing quarter by quarter, targeting approximately 70,000 wafers per month in December 2025).

2. Nvidia's CoWoS orders at TSMC for 2025 are approximately 370,000 wafers (variations within low single digits are considered normal range), showing no significant changes since Q4 2024. Market rumors suggest that Nvidia's 2025 CoWoS wafer allocation plan at TSMC has been reduced from over 400,000 to 380,000 wafers, which differs from my takeaways. Possible explanations include: 1. Some market participants had overly optimistic expectations for Nvidia's 2025 wafer allocations. 2. Some market participants were too optimistic about TSMC's overall 2025 CoWoS capacity, consequently overestimating Nvidia's orders. 

3. Nvidia's significantly accelerated transition timeline between B200 and B300 series products led to production plan adjustments, which were misinterpreted as Nvidia reduced CoWoS wafer orders.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)