
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) I called this yesterday. NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations on paper, but the risks are still massive. When you're dealing with a black swan event like DeepSeek's disruption, NVIDIA needs something earth-shattering to calm the markets - not just decent numbers and Jensen's confident earnings call. Here's why the stock tanked:
First, let's talk growth slowing down. Sure, they hit $39.33 billion in Q4 revenue (up 78% year-over-year) with over $22 billion net profit - both beating estimates. But look at the velocity: revenue growth crashed from over 200% last quarter to 78%, and their data center business growth plummeted from 409% to 78% sequentially. Investors are waking up to the reality that AI chip demand might be peaking. When growth stocks lose momentum like this, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" crowd pounces.
Second, the DeepSeek open-source threat changed the game. That Chinese AI firm dropping open-source models right before earnings wasn't random. Nobody's proven these can replace NVIDIA's top-tier GPUs yet, but the market's pricing in long-term erosion of their monopoly. Why pay premium prices for Blackwell chips if open-source alternatives keep improving?
Third, technical factors created a perfect storm. The stock opened 2% up on algorithm-driven hype, then institutions started dumping shares at record highs. Once it broke below key support levels, automated trading kicked in like dominoes falling. That $3 trillion valuation became a liability - too many weak hands holding the bag.
Short-term? Buckle up for volatility. The real test comes with next quarter's guidance - that'll determine NVIDIA's trajectory for the next three years. But let's be honest: compared to some of its peers, NVIDIA's still got credibility. At least Jensen Huang isn't about to shoot himself in the foot like certain other tech CEOs...
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