Powell "ignores" economic risks, "resolutely" maintains the status quo, driving a rare simultaneous rise in U.S. stocks and bonds overnight, with the S&P achieving its best performance on a "Federal Reserve decision day" since July last year. Analysts believe that his "carefree" attitude towards U.S. economic risks has had a significant impact on market sentiment, as he seems to be "deliberately soothing the financial markets."

The Federal Reserve has rescued the market

Morgan Asset Management pointed out that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged shows sensitivity to the slowdown in economic growth. Although inflation forecasts have been raised, economic growth expectations have been lowered, indicating that the Federal Reserve still maintains a loose policy stance. The market reacted positively, with stock prices rising, bond yields increasing, and international stocks benefiting from positive policies outside the United States. The overall outlook remains uncertain, emphasizing the importance of diversified investments

Morgan Asset Management: The Federal Reserve remains on hold, and a series of positive policies outside the United States are benefiting international stocks

Aberdeen expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, believing that the likelihood of rate cuts is greater during economic downturns. Although the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, concerns about an economic recession have intensified, leading to increased volatility in the stock market. Aberdeen points out that the shift in the U.S. economy will provide investment opportunities in other regions, particularly in Europe and China, due to fiscal stimulus and lower geopolitical risks

Aberdeen: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, and the shift in the U.S. economy will provide investment opportunities for other regions

Tencent and Alibaba have significant differences in the logic of AI capital expenditure (capex). Tencent focuses more on the return on investment (ROI) of applications, while Alibaba follows the logic of cloud computing vendors, investing as long as the depreciation is reasonable. The two represent different business model directions, showing that Chinese companies are no longer followers in the field of AI exploration. In the future, the voices of Chinese companies in the AI narrative will become increasingly prominent

The capex logic of Tencent and Alibaba AI is different

The Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.07% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.16%; BYD Company Limited opened up 2.16%, with its stock price reaching a new high; Tencent Holdings Limited opened up 0.09% on the first day after its earnings report

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is considering restricting the financing ratio of stock options for IPOs. Tencent Holdings expects revenue of 660.257 billion yuan and net profit of 194.073 billion yuan in 2024; Ping An Insurance expects revenue of 1,141.346 billion yuan and net profit of 126.607 billion yuan; HK & CHINA GAS expects revenue of HKD 55.473 billion and net profit of HKD 5.712 billion; Lear Corporation expects revenue of USD 4.276 billion and net profit of USD 61.79 million; Cheung Kong Infrastructure expects revenue of HKD 38.985 billion and net profit of HKD 8.115 billion; ZhongAn Online expects insurance service revenue of 31.744 billion yuan and net profit of 603 million yuan; KINGSOFT CLOUD expects revenue of 7.785 billion yuan, achieving profitability for the first time; Zhengrong Real Estate expects a net loss of 6-7 billion yuan

Daily Hong Kong Stock Market News Briefing (March 20, Thursday)

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, predicting a slowdown in economic growth and rising inflation. Trump spoke with Zelensky, stating that the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are on track. Putin is willing to limit attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure but does not agree to a full ceasefire. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that the market's view on the DeepSeek model is incorrect, emphasizing that the demand for computing infrastructure will increase

External Headlines: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, smooth communication between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine talks are on track, Google and Apple face EU antitrust actions

Wall Street analysts believe that the "stagflation characteristics" in the Federal Reserve's economic forecast, along with Powell's assessment of tariff shocks as temporary, carry dovish signals. Powell's strong denial of the University of Michigan's inflation expectations survey is seen as a key driver of market optimism, "offering a glimpse of the shadow of the Federal Reserve's bearish options."

Wall Street interprets the Federal Reserve's decision: dovish highlights and mini "Powell put options"

On Wednesday, among the top 20 trading volumes in the US stock market, NVIDIA ranked first with a trading volume of $31.832 billion, with its stock price rising by 1.81%. CEO Jensen Huang stated that the R1 model released by DeepSeek will increase demand for computing infrastructure, making chips more sought after in the future. Tesla ranked second with a trading volume of $25.945 billion, with its stock price rising by 4.68%, having received approval from California to begin passenger operations. Meta Platforms ranked third with a trading volume of $11.929 billion, with its stock price rising by 0.29%, but still remains in a declining zone

Top 20 U.S. stock trading volumes on March 19: NVIDIA's Jensen Huang claims future chips will be in higher demand

The European Union takes action against Google and Apple, investigating under the Digital Markets Act, facing fines of up to 10% of global revenue. Google is accused of favoring its own services and restricting developers from directing consumers to other app stores. Apple is required to open its operating system to be compatible with other brand devices. Despite threats of retaliation from the Trump administration, the EU insists on enforcing the law. Google responded that this decision would harm European businesses and consumers, hindering innovation

The US-Europe trade war continues: Europe takes action against Google and Apple

The Federal Reserve's March meeting remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. In the face of tariff uncertainties, officials held a cautious attitude towards the economic outlook, with forecasts showing concerns of "stagflation." Although the dot plot leans "hawkish," Powell actively reassured the market, suggesting that no drastic actions would be taken [Figure 1]. He also stated that the balance sheet reduction would soon slow down to avoid repeating the liquidity shock of 2019. The market reacted positively to Powell's remarks, but we believe that uncertainty in U.S. policy still exists, and the economic downside risks remain significant under the influence of tariffs and government layoffs. We maintain our previous judgment that the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates this year, with the next rate cut possibly in the third quarter

Institutional Interpretation: The Federal Reserve waits for the storm of uncertainty, with the next rate cut possibly in the third quarter

After the U.S. Treasury Secretary recently stepped in to reassure the market, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took the stage overnight. Following his press conference, various assets including U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and commodities all rose sharply. Will U.S. stocks repeat the "Trump 1.0" trend? Wall Street investment banks seem to be skeptical

"Trump put options" and "Powell put options" triggered one after another?

Boosted by Powell's speech, the S&P and NASDAQ rose over 1%; Tesla increased nearly 5%, and NVIDIA rose nearly 2%; Boeing surged nearly 7%, leading the Dow; Global Data fell 14%, while XPeng rebounded over 5%. After Powell's speech: the two-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly plummeted over 10 basis points, falling below 4%, the dollar index retraced more than half of its gains, gold's gains expanded, reaching a historic high during the session

Breakfast | The Federal Reserve remains steady, Powell emphasizes that the economy is still strong, and U.S. stocks accelerate their rebound

The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% and lowered the U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.7%. Despite the rising uncertainty in the economic environment, it is expected to cut rates by another 50 basis points in 2025. U.S. stocks generally rose, while the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell slightly. Tencent plans to repurchase at least HKD 80 billion in shares this year

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Early Knowledge | The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, Tencent plans to repurchase at least HKD 80 billion in shares this year

Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's upward adjustment of inflation expectations is "largely" due to tariffs, and long-term inflation expectations remain stable, allowing the Fed to overlook the impact of tariffs on inflation; part of it is due to tariffs, and the progress of inflation decline this year may be delayed. It is still too early to predict the significant impact of Trump's policies on economic data; the risk of recession "has increased somewhat, but is still not high." External forecasters have raised the likelihood of a recession, which remains at a "relatively mild level." Powell remains optimistic about the employment outlook, stating that the unemployment rate is "very close to its natural level"; the softness in such survey data may be related to the turbulence during the early days of Trump's administration, and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations data is an "outlier," while hard data indicates that the economy is "healthy." Slowing down the balance sheet reduction has not released any signals, and slowing down can allow QT to last longer. Removing the rhetoric about balancing employment and inflation risks does not mean greater concern about related risks. After Powell mentioned the impact of tariffs on inflation, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%

Powell: The hard data of the U.S. economy is very robust, and the "baseline" forecast still indicates that tariffs have a "temporary" impact on inflation

Since the beginning of this year, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have performed actively, with a net financing purchase amount exceeding 83 billion yuan, a repurchase amount exceeding 28 billion yuan, and a net inflow of southbound funds exceeding 390 billion Hong Kong dollars. Industry insiders believe that the influx of incremental funds has provided support for market activity. Combined with the recovery of the Chinese economy, friendly liquidity, and the logic of the technology industry, it is expected that the attractiveness of Chinese assets will continue to increase

Multiple funds significantly increased their positions, boosting the activity in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets

Today's important financial events include: the Japanese stock market is closed for the Spring Equinox; Australia releases the February employment report; China announces the March Loan Prime Rate; Huawei holds a new product launch event; the UK releases employment data; the President of the European Central Bank attends a hearing; Pinduoduo releases its performance report; the Swiss National Bank announces its interest rate decision and economic bulletin; several European Central Bank officials give speeches; NVIDIA holds the GTC conference

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time)

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has dropped 16% year-to-date, while Tesla (TSLA) has seen a 42% decline. Rivian is still in early stages with high expenses and no profits, but has $7.7 billion in cash and plans to launch new models. Tesla, despite its profitability and strong cash flow, faces risks from market competition and political issues. Both companies present unique investment opportunities, with Tesla's established business and Rivian's growth potential. The decision for investors hinges on balancing risks and long-term prospects for each EV maker.

Better EV Stock: Rivian vs. Tesla

Federal Reserve officials have downgraded GDP expectations in the economic outlook summary while raising inflation and unemployment rate expectations. Almost all officials believe that the U.S. economic growth faces downside risks, and there are also upside risks for unemployment and inflation expectations

On Wednesday (March 19), the yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell by more than 4 basis points, reaching a low of 4.2428%. Before the Federal Reserve released its decision statement, the yield had risen to 4.3196%. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond dropped by 6.75 basis points to 3.9723%, reaching 4.0881% an hour before the FOMC announced to keep interest rates unchanged, and then quickly fell to 3.9660%

U.S. Treasury prices soared on the day of the Federal Reserve's decision, with the two-year Treasury yield falling by about 7 basis points on Wednesday

The National Economic Council's Hassett stated: We (the Trump administration) greatly respect the independence of the Federal Reserve. (Fox Business News)

Tencent executives stated that capital expenditures are primarily used for the procurement of GPUs, which have yielded high returns. With breakthroughs in DeepSeek technology, the efficiency of GPU resource utilization has improved, eliminating the need for large-scale additional GPU purchases as originally anticipated. AI-enhanced technology has improved the return on investment for advertisers, helping Tencent's advertising growth rate exceed industry levels. At the same time, AI also supports the gaming business, with deferred revenue (primarily from games) growing at a high double-digit rate year-on-year by the end of last year, and it is expected to gradually convert into reported revenue in the coming years. AI has become a key investment area while also considering shareholder returns

Tencent Conference Call: Chinese tech companies prioritize efficiency, with capital expenditures lower than their Western counterparts, as evidenced by DeepSeek

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index preliminarily closed down 0.4%. The performance of popular Chinese concept stocks was mixed, with Baidu down 4.1%, Xiaomi ADR down 2.8%, Pony.ai down 2.3%, and Bilibili down over 1.7%; Alibaba and Tencent ADR rose over 0.2%, NetEase rose 1.5%, Fangdd Network rose 2.2%, and XPeng rose 5.1%. The Chinese concept ETF CQQQ fell 1.1%, and KWEB fell 0.2%

The Federal Reserve announced to hold steady, with the S&P 500 index initially rising by 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 index initially rising by 1.2%. The consumer discretionary, energy, technology, industrial, telecommunications, and financial sectors all rose over 1%. Among the constituent stocks, MSTR, AppLovin, Warner Bros. Discovery, AXON, TEAM, and Tesla saw increases ranging from 4.6% to 7.4%, while Arm Holdings, Kraft Heinz, Gilead Sciences, and Intel fell between 1.4% and 6.8%. Among the Dow components, Boeing, American Express, IBM, Chevron, JP Morgan, and NVIDIA rose between 1.8% and 6.8%, while Merck & Co. and Amgen saw slight declines

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin have seen significant price increases today, with gains of 3.94%, 6.88%, and 5.18%, respectively. This surge follows the SEC's decision to drop its appeal against Ripple, signaling a more lenient regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies. Ethereum continues to dominate the stablecoin market, while Dogecoin has announced a partnership with IndyCar for the Indianapolis 500. Despite these positive developments, macroeconomic uncertainties persist, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate plan and projecting modest GDP growth.

Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Are Soaring Today

Intel's stock is down 7.1% due to negative news regarding its foundry business. A TSMC board member denied rumors of a potential takeover of Intel's chip foundry, which has been struggling with losses and missed milestones. Investors are uncertain about the future direction under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, with speculation about selling the foundry or forming partnerships. The outlook remains unclear as interest from TSMC and other companies is uncertain.

Why Intel Stock Is Sinking Today

The Federal Reserve's statement removed the wording that the risks to employment and inflation targets are broadly balanced, stating that uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased. The method for slowing down the balance sheet reduction is to lower the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion. It still expects two rate cuts this year, but in the dot plot, the number of those expecting no rate cuts this year increased from one to four, while those expecting two rate cuts decreased from ten to nine. The GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate was slightly raised to 4.4%. The core PCE inflation forecast was raised from 2.5% to 2.8%. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" noted that the Fed's higher inflation and unemployment rate expectations this year reflect the potential impact of tariffs

The Federal Reserve continues to hold steady, slowing down the balance sheet reduction starting in April, with expectations of fewer rate cuts by officials this year, while lowering economic forecasts and raising inflation expectations

Former New York Federal Reserve President Dudley: There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may act too late

Powell: I do not believe that the United States is replaying the inflation of the 1970s

Powell: Before President Trump raised tariffs, core inflation was basically at 2.5%

Powell: Refused to comment on President Trump's removal of two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)

In this statement, the Federal Reserve indicated that the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased; the Federal Reserve removed the previous January statement that "the committee believes the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are broadly balanced." In this statement, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the balance sheet reduction starting in April, specifically targeting U.S. Treasury securities, with the monthly redemption cap reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion. The influential Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cast a dissenting vote, supporting the maintenance of the federal funds target range but leaning towards continuing the current pace of balance sheet reduction

What changes are there in the full text compared to the Federal Reserve's March meeting statement?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank does not need to rush to adjust policies and is prepared to patiently wait for market information. Surveys show that tariffs have raised inflation expectations, but long-term inflation expectations are in line with the 2% target. The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury bond fell below 4%, declining more than 3 basis points during the day, previously trading around 4.08%

Powell talks about patience and tariffs raising inflation expectations, two-year U.S. Treasury yields fall below 4%

Federal Reserve Economic Projections Summary (SEP): The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to be 4.4% in 2025, and 4.3% in December 2024

Federal Reserve Economic Projections Summary (SEP): The PCE inflation rate in the United States is expected to be 2.7% in 2025, and 2.5% in December 2024

Before the Federal Reserve's March decision statement was released, the ICE Dollar Index rose 0.59% to 103.86 points. The euro, pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all fell against the US dollar, while the US dollar rose against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen. Spot gold dipped 0.1% to $3,031, and WTI crude oil futures rose 0.46%. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 3.1 basis points, remaining at 4.3196%; the yield on the 2-year Treasury rose by more than 4.4 basis points, remaining at 4.0881%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq rose 0.7%, Tesla rose 3.4%, and Apple rose 0.6%

Tencent (Minutes): Adjust AI investment dynamically according to demand, balance capital allocation

In the financial industry, artificial intelligence is rapidly changing traditional investment research processes and may replace 90% of fund managers and analysts in the next five to ten years. The efficient data processing and logical output capabilities of AI give it an advantage in generating investment recommendations. Although the application of AI is relatively mature in manufacturing and insurance, its penetration in areas such as sell-side research and investment banking still faces challenges

"Carbon-based" VS "Silicon-based": The "life-and-death race" of human-machine in the secondary market

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: The understanding of DeepSeek R1 is completely wrong. The demand for computing is still extremely high. Risk warning and disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly, and the responsibility lies with the investor

Jensen Huang: The understanding of DeepSeek R1 is completely wrong

Renowned economist El-Erian stated that the Federal Reserve needs to make a clear statement, paying attention to the bad news of the slowing U.S. economy, which may force the FOMC to continue cutting interest rates

Tencent:Crazy for "AI"! Love it ot hate it?

Barclays believes that although Tesla has a leading position in autonomous driving technology, it faces dual challenges of regulatory oversight and market competition in the Chinese market. Moreover, the price of Tesla's FSD is as high as 64,000 yuan, which is significantly less competitive compared to BYD's free "Heavenly Eye" offering

Autonomous Driving Battle: BYD's Price "Weapon" VS Tesla's "Dilemma"

Guggenheim Securities' Jim Millstein: It is expected that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will "freeze" (monetary policy actions) until more information is gathered on the impact of President Trump's tariffs. (Bloomberg Television)

The Federal Reserve can lower interest rates based on good news about inflation or bad news about the economy; however, as new inflation risks arise from Trump's tariffs, the door to lowering rates based on "good news" is closing. The core issue of this Federal Reserve meeting is not whether to lower interest rates, but how to adjust its policy framework in the face of uncertain economic prospects

Tonight's Federal Reserve decision: On the surface, it remains steady, but behind the scenes, is it playing out a "strategic pivot"?

1. Will there be a wait-and-see approach? An introduction by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the discussion of policy interest rates. 
2. The views of Federal Reserve officials on the economic situation in the United States (inflation + employment). 
3. The Federal Reserve's perspective on President Trump's tariff policy. 
4. Discussion on the impact of layoffs in the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. 
5. Views on the financial markets

Focus of the Federal Reserve's March FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

The financial report shows that Kingsoft Cloud's Q4 revenue reached 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, surpassing the industry average growth rate; among them, public cloud revenue was 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, and industry cloud revenue was 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, achieving dual-driven and balanced development. In this quarter, the company continued to lead its transformation with artificial intelligence, with AI billing revenue reaching 474 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 500%, accounting for 34% of public cloud revenue

KINGSOFT CLOUD Q4 revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, surpassing the industry average growth rate, with AI revenue increasing by nearly 500%

Vertiv (VRT) is positioned as a valuable investment opportunity due to the rising demand for AI-driven data centers. Despite a 23% year-to-date decline, the company's partnership with Nvidia and projected revenue growth—16% organic sales increase to $9.2 billion and a 25% rise in adjusted operating profit—suggest strong potential. Valuations appear attractive at 25.6 times expected free cash flow for 2025, making Vertiv a compelling buy for investors seeking to capitalize on market dips.

Could This Nvidia Partner Be a Hidden Gem That Boosts Your Portfolio?

Tesla's stock has plummeted 50% from its peak of $488 in December 2024, closing at $238. Concerns over Elon Musk's political involvement and disappointing financial results, including a 53% drop in net income and stagnant revenue growth, have contributed to the decline. Despite these challenges, Tesla's long-term prospects in the EV market, autonomous driving, and renewable energy remain strong. However, the stock is still considered pricey with P/S and P/E ratios of 8.6 and 118, respectively, raising questions about its valuation amidst increasing competition.

Tesla Stock Is Down by 50%. Time to Buy?

Tencent is set to invest 100 billion yuan in AI

At the beginning of the U.S. stock market, most technology stocks rose, with Tesla and NVIDIA both up about 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Chinese concept stocks performed well, with XPeng and Alibaba each rising about 2%. Boeing rose about 3%, with the CFO stating that the first quarter performance met expectations. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision to clarify the economic and interest rate outlook