Former U.S. President Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss issues such as ceasefire, mutual visits, and repayments. Trump believes that Ukraine joining NATO is unrealistic, and both sides agreed to resolve the conflict through negotiations. Zelensky expressed Ukraine's desire for peace and plans to work with the U.S. to implement joint measures to stop Russian actions. Trump mentioned that the U.S. has provided $350 billion to Ukraine, which has promised to repay. The U.S. Secretary of Defense stated that restoring Ukraine's borders and joining NATO is not realistic

Trump spoke on the phone with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. In addition to "ceasefire, mutual visits, and repayment," they also discussed a major issue

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Trump stated that interest rates should be lowered. Subsequently, the U.S. released the CPI data for January, which exceeded expectations across the board. Trump posted again, criticizing this inflation report as "Biden inflation." Analysts believe that Trump's move aims to avoid potential political dangers at the beginning of his second term. The CPI data for January includes 12 days during Trump's tenure

Trump calls for interest rate cuts again, attributing the unexpectedly high CPI in January to "Biden inflation," but the market is no longer buying it

Powell stated that the CPI shows the Federal Reserve is close to but has not yet achieved its inflation target, and the Fed will not be excited by the good or bad of one or two data points; he hinted that interest rates will remain high in the near term, saying "we hope to maintain a restrictive policy for now"; he mentioned "there is enough time to wait" for restrictive monetary policy to take effect, "there are ways to continue to reduce the balance sheet," and reiterated that reserves are "ample"; he stated that even if Trump requests, he will not resign; the Federal Reserve has not been cut off from access to the data needed for its work, and DOGE's access to the payment system is very cautious; the establishment of the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve has led to greater fluctuations in regulatory policy; the 2020 policy framework did not restrict the Fed's response to inflation

Powell's congressional hearing the next day: The Federal Reserve may adjust interest rates due to tariffs, CPI shows more effort is needed to reduce inflation

Overnight, Trump spoke separately with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, raising hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. January CPI exceeded expectations across the board, severely impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations. Powell stated at the congressional hearing the next day that the Federal Reserve might adjust interest rates due to tariff changes. Bank of America indicated that DeepSeek is the "Alibaba IPO moment" for the Chinese stock market

Breakfast | Alibaba rises another 5%, up over 14% in three days! Tesla rebounds over 2% after five consecutive declines, Meta rises for eighteen consecutive trading days

The U.S. core CPI rose more than expected, supporting the Federal Reserve to proceed with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. In January, the core consumer price index increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Trump called for lower interest rates, although economists expect that tariff policies will exacerbate inflation and delay interest rate cuts. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up 2.7%, with Alibaba rising nearly 5%

Zhitong Hongguo Zao Zhidao | US Core CPI Increase Exceeds Expectations DeepSeek Integrated Machine Intensive Release

Tesla's stock has dropped 13% in 2025 after a 69% rise since late October. The company reported disappointing Q4 2024 results, with revenue of $25.7 billion and EPS of $0.73, both missing estimates. Automotive revenue fell 8%, and vehicle deliveries declined for the first time ever. Despite plans for a cheaper model and expectations for growth in 2025, Tesla faces intense competition and pricing pressures. CEO Elon Musk emphasizes future potential in autonomous driving, but skepticism remains. The stock, trading at a high P/E ratio of 176.7, appears overvalued, and investors are advised to avoid it.

Tesla Stock Is Down 13% in 2025: Is It a Long-Term Buy?

As of January this year, in the first four months of the fiscal year 2025, the U.S. federal government's budget deficit expanded by 58% year-on-year, with both government revenue and expenditure reaching record highs for the same period, increasing by 1% and 15% respectively. In the first four months, the government's interest costs were $392 billion, accounting for 16% of total expenditures; the January budget deficit was $129 billion, the second highest level after January during the COVID-19 pandemic. Government spending in January increased by 29% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 7.5%

The U.S. government deficit raises red flags again! The deficit in the first four months of the fiscal year reached a record $84 billion, surpassing the peak period of the pandemic

Overnight U.S. stocks performed unevenly, with the U.S. January CPI exceeding expectations, leading economists to lower their Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.50%, the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.03%, and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.27%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.7%, with Alibaba gaining nearly 5%. European stocks generally rose, with the German DAX30 index up 0.49%. In the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.42%. Bitcoin briefly fell before rebounding above $97,000, while spot gold rose slightly by 0.20%

Overnight U.S. Stocks | CPI scares off rate cut expectations, NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closes up 2.7%, Alibaba rises nearly 5%

Today's important economic data and events include: 15:00 UK Q4 GDP preliminary value and Germany January CPI final value; 15:30 Switzerland January CPI; 16:40 European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone speaks in Frankfurt; 17:00 European Central Bank releases economic bulletin, and Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee participates in a Bloomberg event; 21:30 US January PPI and initial jobless claims; next day 01:00 European Central Bank Governing Council Member Nagel speaks at the University of Glasgow; several companies release earnings reports after US stock market close

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time)

The latest inflation report has led to a significant adjustment in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the earliest cut anticipated in September, and possibly no cuts throughout the year. The January CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with the annual inflation rate increasing to 3%, and the core CPI annual growth rate reaching 3.3%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that inflation has not yet met the target and that a restrictive monetary policy must be maintained. The market's probability of a rate cut in March is only 2.5%, while the probability for September is 55.9%

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed to September or even later, as inflation data raises market concerns

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a congressional hearing that despite progress in curbing inflation, it is still necessary to maintain a high interest rate policy to achieve the 2% target. The latest data shows that the core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, higher than expected, indicating that inflation remains sticky. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with traders anticipating only one possible rate cut this year. Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will not adjust its policy due to short-term data fluctuations and noted that government trade policies could impact inflation control

Powell: Progress has been made in controlling inflation, but tight policies must be maintained

On the day the U.S. CPI inflation data was released, the S&P 500 index initially fell about 0.3%, with the energy sector down 2.7%. The Nasdaq 100 index was roughly flat, with constituent stock Biogen (BIIB) down over 4%. Tesla rose over 2%, Intel rose 7.2%, gaining about 17% over three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell over 200 points, with Caterpillar and Home Depot down over 2%. Apple rose 1.7%, and Boeing rose 3.1%

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index preliminarily rose by 2.7%, and the FTSE A50 night futures increased by over 0.3%. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd Network rose by 7.7%, Bilibili rose by 6.3%, Alibaba and Li Auto both rose by 4.9%, and Baidu rose by 4.3%. The ETF YINN rose by 7.6%, the internet ETF KWEB rose by 2.8%, the technology index CQQQ rose by 2.3%, while the "China Dragon" DRAG rose by 2.2%

Tesla's stock surged 5.4% amid a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500, driven by political catalysts including a White House presentation by CEO Elon Musk and former President Trump. Trump announced an executive order enhancing the Department of Government Efficiency's powers, which investors view positively for Tesla. Additionally, proposed $1,000 taxes on new EV sales could pressure sales short-term but may strengthen Tesla's market position long-term, as it benefits from economies of scale compared to less profitable competitors.

Why Tesla Stock Is Surging Today

At the hearing on February 12, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve has enough time to patiently wait for the effects of monetary policy and mentioned that it may need to end quantitative easing earlier. He pointed out that the latest inflation data is close to the target, but there is still work to be done, especially regarding rental inflation. The Federal Reserve will not become complacent due to short-term inflation data and will focus on the latest PPI data and its impact on PCE inflation

Summary of Key Points from Powell's Hearing on February 12

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest CPI data in the United States is "alarming."

Singapore hedge fund Keystone Investors Pte reduced its holdings in several Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter, including Pinduoduo, Yum China, Trip.com, New Oriental, and Li Auto. At the same time, the fund established new positions in NetEase, Manbang Group, and Futu, and increased its stake in Huazhu

Singapore hedge fund Keystone reduced its holdings in Pinduoduo and Li Auto and established a position in NetEase in the fourth quarter

Powell: If the fiscal path of the U.S. government becomes more sustainable, (the Federal Reserve's policy) interest rates will be lower

Powell: Certain independence of the Federal Reserve is key to controlling inflation in the United States

Powell: If the U.S. Government Efficiency Department (DOGE) led by Musk attempts to interfere with Federal Reserve data, we will warn Capitol Hill

Powell: It is expected that the immigration factor will continue to decrease the supply in the U.S. labor market

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index's increase expanded to 3%, with popular Chinese concept stock Fangdd Network maintaining an increase of over 10%. YINN rose more than 7.8%, Bilibili and Alibaba rose up to 5.8%, Li Auto and Baidu rose up to more than 4.6%, and NetEase, Tencent Holdings, and XPeng rose more than 3%. The FTSE A50 night futures rose more than 0.2%

Powell: Uncertain whether the layoffs under the Trump administration will have a substantial impact on the U.S. labor market

The European STOXX 600 Index initially rose by 0.14%, closing at 547.93 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index initially rose by 0.31%, closing at 5407.89 points, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Europe Index initially rose by 0.13%, closing at 2182.11 points

Powell: The U.S. CPI data released today (February 12) indicates that we are close to, but have not yet achieved, the 2% inflation target

Powell: The U.S. economy is fundamentally very strong, but the outlook faces uncertainty

Powell: I am somewhat concerned about the liquidity of U.S. Treasury bonds

Powell: The Federal Reserve is reserving judgment until it understands the policies of U.S. President Trump

Powell: The Federal Reserve has not been in contact with the U.S. Government Efficiency Office (DOGE) led by Musk

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2%, with popular Chinese concept stocks Fangdd Network up 10%, YINN up 4.6%, and Bilibili, Alibaba, Li Auto, and XPeng all rising over 3%

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve participates, we will address the inflation issue in the United States

In January, the U.S. CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest increase since August 2023, marking the seventh consecutive month of acceleration. The inflation process faces the risk of reversal, and coupled with a solid labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive in the foreseeable future. Traders have adjusted their expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from September to December. Before the January CPI was released, traders leaned towards two rate cuts this year. According to the "New Federal Reserve News Agency," the strong inflation data in January undermines the rationale for the Federal Reserve to further "readjust" its rate cut path before mid-year

All lines exceed expectations! The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. January CPI rises to 3%, and the core CPI accelerates to 0.4%

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by more than 1.4%. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd Network had the largest increase, reaching 18.57%; YINN rose by 4.79%; Alibaba rose by 4.12%; Li Auto rose by 3.33%; Bilibili rose by 3.2%; XPeng rose by 2.7%; Baidu rose by 2.1%. In contrast, New Oriental fell by 2.58%, and JD.com fell by 3.14%

In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States rose more than expected, reaching 3%, the largest increase since June 2024, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance of not rushing to cut interest rates. The report indicated that rising housing costs were a major factor, and businesses' expectations of raising prices at the beginning of the year also influenced the CPI. The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies of the Trump administration

The US January CPI "explosion" scares off rate cut expectations, the dollar soars, and the suspense of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike rises again?

U.S. stock market opening situation: The S&P 500 index opened down 43.42 points, a decrease of 0.72%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 235.95 points, a decrease of 0.53%; the Nasdaq Composite opened down 207.35 points, a decrease of 1.06%. Tesla rose 0.8%, TSMC ADR fell 2%, AMD rose 9.8%, Meta fell 0.7%, Intel rose over 4%, NVIDIA fell 2.7%. Chinese concept stocks performed well, with Baidu rising 1.6%, Alibaba rising 2.8%, and Fangdd rising 19.5%

U.S. stock market opens: S&P and Nasdaq down over 1%, semiconductor index down 1.7%, Chinese concept index up over 0.4%

Former President Donald Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to support his economic policies, including increased tariffs and expanded tax cuts. He stated on social media that interest rates should be lowered to align with the upcoming tariff measures. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates, Trump's remarks demonstrate his ongoing concern about the Fed's policies. Trump's economic policy proposals could have a profound impact on the outlook for the U.S. economy

Trump exerts pressure again! Calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) on February 11 was 4.34%, slightly down from 4.35% the previous day. Meanwhile, the effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33%

The landscape of the takeaway market is changing

Richard Liu is coming to take Wang Xing's business

The U.S. January CPI year-on-year recorded 3%, the largest increase for 2024, with a core CPI month-on-month of 0.4%. Traders have adjusted the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline from September to December. Trump stated that interest rates should be lowered. In terms of individual stocks, Baidu's driverless taxis will be tested in Dubai, Fangdd plans to issue $5 million in convertible bonds, TSMC approved a capital injection of $10 billion, Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum, Novo Nordisk's new indication has been accepted, Barrick Gold's profits exceeded expectations and initiated a stock buyback, Meta is discussing the acquisition of FuriosaAI, and DoorDash's revenue grew by 25%

Daily U.S. Stock Market News Briefing (February 12, Wednesday)

In January, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate rose to 3%, with core CPI increasing by 0.4%, leading to a decline in U.S. stock futures and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once in 2025. India's January CPI year-on-year decreased to 4.31%. Hon Hai is considering acquiring Nissan shares held by Renault. SoftBank reported a loss of 352.75 billion yen in Q3. Goldman Sachs and Jefferies upgraded SMIC's rating to Buy. BeiGene's stock price fell over 6%, while Baidu rose over 2%. OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth rate unchanged. The Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index all rose

Global news you need to know before the U.S. stock market opens on Wednesday

U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, causing bond traders to push back bets on the next Federal Reserve rate cut to December, instead of mid-year as previously anticipated. The market expects only one 25 basis point rate cut for the remainder of 2025

Traders expect only one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, European stock markets turned lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index falling by 0.4%

U.S. January inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock futures, with Nasdaq futures down 0.85%, S&P 500 down 0.88%, and Dow Jones down 0.89%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.615%. The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.37%. Bitcoin fell below $95,000, and gold retreated. Jerome Powell will deliver monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives tonight, and the market has adjusted its expectations for future interest rate cuts

Inflation exceeds expectations across the board! U.S. stock futures plummet sharply, U.S. Treasury yields rise rapidly, and the U.S. dollar index surges in the short term

Last month, the rise in U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on lowering interest rates. The report indicates that inflation faces the risk of reversal, coupled with a strong labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future

Quick Review of U.S. CPI Data

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with Nasdaq futures down 0.85%, S&P 500 index futures down 0.88%, and Dow futures down 0.89%. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by more than 7 basis points, currently reported at 4.615%. The U.S. dollar index surged in the short term, rising 0.37% intraday, and the dollar rose 1.1% against the yen, reaching 154.10

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted

In January, the core CPI in the United States was 3.3% year-on-year, expected at 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.2%

In January, the core CPI in the United States increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to an expectation of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%

The U.S. January CPI year-on-year is 3%, expected to be 2.9%, previous value 2.9%

The emergence of DeepSeek has triggered significant turmoil in the U.S. stock market, intensifying investor concerns over a slowdown in AI spending. NVIDIA's stock price plummeted 17% due to DeepSeek's claim of achieving high performance at a low cost, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $590 billion. Although the stock price has rebounded somewhat, it remains 11% below its historical peak. The shift in market sentiment reflects a cautious attitude among investors towards the AI industry, especially in the context of major clients planning large-scale capital expenditures

DeepSeek's "Low Computing Power Cost Storm" Shocks US Stocks, Is NVIDIA's AI Chip Myth Finally Shattered?

Bank of America stated that Alibaba's listing in 2014 drove the rise of China's "new economy" sector, attracting long-term capital inflows from around the world. DeepSeek may become the current "Alibaba IPO moment" for the Chinese stock market. The "holy grail" of AI development in China may not necessarily be "best in class," but rather "good enough" to support large-scale AI applications in China and drive productivity and economic growth