Overnight U.S. stocks performed unevenly, with the U.S. January CPI exceeding expectations, leading economists to lower their Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.50%, the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.03%, and the S&P 500 index dropped 0.27%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.7%, with Alibaba gaining nearly 5%. European stocks generally rose, with the German DAX30 index up 0.49%. In the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.42%. Bitcoin briefly fell before rebounding above $97,000, while spot gold rose slightly by 0.20%

Overnight U.S. Stocks | CPI scares off rate cut expectations, NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closes up 2.7%, Alibaba rises nearly 5%

Today's important economic data and events include: 15:00 UK Q4 GDP preliminary value and Germany January CPI final value; 15:30 Switzerland January CPI; 16:40 European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone speaks in Frankfurt; 17:00 European Central Bank releases economic bulletin, and Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee participates in a Bloomberg event; 21:30 US January PPI and initial jobless claims; next day 01:00 European Central Bank Governing Council Member Nagel speaks at the University of Glasgow; several companies release earnings reports after US stock market close

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time)

The latest inflation report has led to a significant adjustment in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the earliest cut anticipated in September, and possibly no cuts throughout the year. The January CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with the annual inflation rate increasing to 3%, and the core CPI annual growth rate reaching 3.3%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that inflation has not yet met the target and that a restrictive monetary policy must be maintained. The market's probability of a rate cut in March is only 2.5%, while the probability for September is 55.9%

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed to September or even later, as inflation data raises market concerns

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a congressional hearing that despite progress in curbing inflation, it is still necessary to maintain a high interest rate policy to achieve the 2% target. The latest data shows that the core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, higher than expected, indicating that inflation remains sticky. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with traders anticipating only one possible rate cut this year. Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will not adjust its policy due to short-term data fluctuations and noted that government trade policies could impact inflation control

Powell: Progress has been made in controlling inflation, but tight policies must be maintained

On the day the U.S. CPI inflation data was released, the S&P 500 index initially fell about 0.3%, with the energy sector down 2.7%. The Nasdaq 100 index was roughly flat, with constituent stock Biogen (BIIB) down over 4%. Tesla rose over 2%, Intel rose 7.2%, gaining about 17% over three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell over 200 points, with Caterpillar and Home Depot down over 2%. Apple rose 1.7%, and Boeing rose 3.1%

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index preliminarily rose by 2.7%, and the FTSE A50 night futures increased by over 0.3%. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd Network rose by 7.7%, Bilibili rose by 6.3%, Alibaba and Li Auto both rose by 4.9%, and Baidu rose by 4.3%. The ETF YINN rose by 7.6%, the internet ETF KWEB rose by 2.8%, the technology index CQQQ rose by 2.3%, while the "China Dragon" DRAG rose by 2.2%

Tesla's stock surged 5.4% amid a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500, driven by political catalysts including a White House presentation by CEO Elon Musk and former President Trump. Trump announced an executive order enhancing the Department of Government Efficiency's powers, which investors view positively for Tesla. Additionally, proposed $1,000 taxes on new EV sales could pressure sales short-term but may strengthen Tesla's market position long-term, as it benefits from economies of scale compared to less profitable competitors.

Why Tesla Stock Is Surging Today

At the hearing on February 12, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve has enough time to patiently wait for the effects of monetary policy and mentioned that it may need to end quantitative easing earlier. He pointed out that the latest inflation data is close to the target, but there is still work to be done, especially regarding rental inflation. The Federal Reserve will not become complacent due to short-term inflation data and will focus on the latest PPI data and its impact on PCE inflation

Summary of Key Points from Powell's Hearing on February 12

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest CPI data in the United States is "alarming."

Singapore hedge fund Keystone Investors Pte reduced its holdings in several Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter, including Pinduoduo, Yum China, Trip.com, New Oriental, and Li Auto. At the same time, the fund established new positions in NetEase, Manbang Group, and Futu, and increased its stake in Huazhu

Singapore hedge fund Keystone reduced its holdings in Pinduoduo and Li Auto and established a position in NetEase in the fourth quarter

Powell: If the fiscal path of the U.S. government becomes more sustainable, (the Federal Reserve's policy) interest rates will be lower

Powell: Certain independence of the Federal Reserve is key to controlling inflation in the United States

Powell: If the U.S. Government Efficiency Department (DOGE) led by Musk attempts to interfere with Federal Reserve data, we will warn Capitol Hill

Powell: It is expected that the immigration factor will continue to decrease the supply in the U.S. labor market

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index's increase expanded to 3%, with popular Chinese concept stock Fangdd Network maintaining an increase of over 10%. YINN rose more than 7.8%, Bilibili and Alibaba rose up to 5.8%, Li Auto and Baidu rose up to more than 4.6%, and NetEase, Tencent Holdings, and XPeng rose more than 3%. The FTSE A50 night futures rose more than 0.2%

Powell: Uncertain whether the layoffs under the Trump administration will have a substantial impact on the U.S. labor market

The European STOXX 600 Index initially rose by 0.14%, closing at 547.93 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index initially rose by 0.31%, closing at 5407.89 points, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Europe Index initially rose by 0.13%, closing at 2182.11 points

Powell: The U.S. CPI data released today (February 12) indicates that we are close to, but have not yet achieved, the 2% inflation target

Powell: The U.S. economy is fundamentally very strong, but the outlook faces uncertainty

Powell: I am somewhat concerned about the liquidity of U.S. Treasury bonds

Powell: The Federal Reserve is reserving judgment until it understands the policies of U.S. President Trump

Powell: The Federal Reserve has not been in contact with the U.S. Government Efficiency Office (DOGE) led by Musk

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2%, with popular Chinese concept stocks Fangdd Network up 10%, YINN up 4.6%, and Bilibili, Alibaba, Li Auto, and XPeng all rising over 3%

White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve participates, we will address the inflation issue in the United States

In January, the U.S. CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest increase since August 2023, marking the seventh consecutive month of acceleration. The inflation process faces the risk of reversal, and coupled with a solid labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive in the foreseeable future. Traders have adjusted their expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from September to December. Before the January CPI was released, traders leaned towards two rate cuts this year. According to the "New Federal Reserve News Agency," the strong inflation data in January undermines the rationale for the Federal Reserve to further "readjust" its rate cut path before mid-year

All lines exceed expectations! The year-on-year growth rate of the U.S. January CPI rises to 3%, and the core CPI accelerates to 0.4%

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by more than 1.4%. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Fangdd Network had the largest increase, reaching 18.57%; YINN rose by 4.79%; Alibaba rose by 4.12%; Li Auto rose by 3.33%; Bilibili rose by 3.2%; XPeng rose by 2.7%; Baidu rose by 2.1%. In contrast, New Oriental fell by 2.58%, and JD.com fell by 3.14%

In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States rose more than expected, reaching 3%, the largest increase since June 2024, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance of not rushing to cut interest rates. The report indicated that rising housing costs were a major factor, and businesses' expectations of raising prices at the beginning of the year also influenced the CPI. The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies of the Trump administration

The US January CPI "explosion" scares off rate cut expectations, the dollar soars, and the suspense of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike rises again?

U.S. stock market opening situation: The S&P 500 index opened down 43.42 points, a decrease of 0.72%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 235.95 points, a decrease of 0.53%; the Nasdaq Composite opened down 207.35 points, a decrease of 1.06%. Tesla rose 0.8%, TSMC ADR fell 2%, AMD rose 9.8%, Meta fell 0.7%, Intel rose over 4%, NVIDIA fell 2.7%. Chinese concept stocks performed well, with Baidu rising 1.6%, Alibaba rising 2.8%, and Fangdd rising 19.5%

U.S. stock market opens: S&P and Nasdaq down over 1%, semiconductor index down 1.7%, Chinese concept index up over 0.4%

Former President Donald Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to support his economic policies, including increased tariffs and expanded tax cuts. He stated on social media that interest rates should be lowered to align with the upcoming tariff measures. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates, Trump's remarks demonstrate his ongoing concern about the Fed's policies. Trump's economic policy proposals could have a profound impact on the outlook for the U.S. economy

Trump exerts pressure again! Calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) on February 11 was 4.34%, slightly down from 4.35% the previous day. Meanwhile, the effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33%

The landscape of the takeaway market is changing

Richard Liu is coming to take Wang Xing's business

The U.S. January CPI year-on-year recorded 3%, the largest increase for 2024, with a core CPI month-on-month of 0.4%. Traders have adjusted the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline from September to December. Trump stated that interest rates should be lowered. In terms of individual stocks, Baidu's driverless taxis will be tested in Dubai, Fangdd plans to issue $5 million in convertible bonds, TSMC approved a capital injection of $10 billion, Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum, Novo Nordisk's new indication has been accepted, Barrick Gold's profits exceeded expectations and initiated a stock buyback, Meta is discussing the acquisition of FuriosaAI, and DoorDash's revenue grew by 25%

Daily U.S. Stock Market News Briefing (February 12, Wednesday)

In January, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate rose to 3%, with core CPI increasing by 0.4%, leading to a decline in U.S. stock futures and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once in 2025. India's January CPI year-on-year decreased to 4.31%. Hon Hai is considering acquiring Nissan shares held by Renault. SoftBank reported a loss of 352.75 billion yen in Q3. Goldman Sachs and Jefferies upgraded SMIC's rating to Buy. BeiGene's stock price fell over 6%, while Baidu rose over 2%. OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth rate unchanged. The Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index all rose

Global news you need to know before the U.S. stock market opens on Wednesday

U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, causing bond traders to push back bets on the next Federal Reserve rate cut to December, instead of mid-year as previously anticipated. The market expects only one 25 basis point rate cut for the remainder of 2025

Traders expect only one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, European stock markets turned lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index falling by 0.4%

U.S. January inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock futures, with Nasdaq futures down 0.85%, S&P 500 down 0.88%, and Dow Jones down 0.89%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.615%. The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.37%. Bitcoin fell below $95,000, and gold retreated. Jerome Powell will deliver monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives tonight, and the market has adjusted its expectations for future interest rate cuts

Inflation exceeds expectations across the board! U.S. stock futures plummet sharply, U.S. Treasury yields rise rapidly, and the U.S. dollar index surges in the short term

Last month, the rise in U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on lowering interest rates. The report indicates that inflation faces the risk of reversal, coupled with a strong labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future

Quick Review of U.S. CPI Data

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with Nasdaq futures down 0.85%, S&P 500 index futures down 0.88%, and Dow futures down 0.89%. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose rapidly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by more than 7 basis points, currently reported at 4.615%. The U.S. dollar index surged in the short term, rising 0.37% intraday, and the dollar rose 1.1% against the yen, reaching 154.10

After the release of the U.S. CPI data, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted

In January, the core CPI in the United States was 3.3% year-on-year, expected at 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.2%

In January, the core CPI in the United States increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to an expectation of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%

The U.S. January CPI year-on-year is 3%, expected to be 2.9%, previous value 2.9%

The emergence of DeepSeek has triggered significant turmoil in the U.S. stock market, intensifying investor concerns over a slowdown in AI spending. NVIDIA's stock price plummeted 17% due to DeepSeek's claim of achieving high performance at a low cost, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $590 billion. Although the stock price has rebounded somewhat, it remains 11% below its historical peak. The shift in market sentiment reflects a cautious attitude among investors towards the AI industry, especially in the context of major clients planning large-scale capital expenditures

DeepSeek's "Low Computing Power Cost Storm" Shocks US Stocks, Is NVIDIA's AI Chip Myth Finally Shattered?

Bank of America stated that Alibaba's listing in 2014 drove the rise of China's "new economy" sector, attracting long-term capital inflows from around the world. DeepSeek may become the current "Alibaba IPO moment" for the Chinese stock market. The "holy grail" of AI development in China may not necessarily be "best in class," but rather "good enough" to support large-scale AI applications in China and drive productivity and economic growth

Bank of America: DeepSeek is the "Alibaba IPO moment" of the Chinese stock market

Apple enters the market, re-evaluating Alibaba

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway have reportedly sold $25 billion in Apple stock in Q4 2023, reducing their holdings from over 900 million shares to 300 million. This decline reflects a broader trend of selling as Apple's growth has plateaued, with its P/E ratio rising significantly while earnings have stagnated. If the prediction holds true, Apple may drop to the second-largest holding in Buffett's portfolio. The next 13F filings on February 14 will confirm these transactions, highlighting Buffett's shift away from Apple as it no longer fits his investment strategy.

Prediction: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Sold $25 Billion in Apple Stock in Q4

The author discusses their recent purchase of Alphabet stock, viewing the recent dip as a buying opportunity despite a 7% drop post-earnings report. They highlight Alphabet's diverse business segments, including YouTube, Waymo, and Google Cloud, which are expected to drive long-term growth. The stock is considered undervalued compared to market averages, trading at lower price-to-earnings ratios than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The author believes Alphabet's strong positions in AI, autonomous driving, and cloud computing will yield significant returns in the future.

Here's Why I Just Bought the Dip on Alphabet Stock

Nvidia's stock has recently retreated below a valuation of 30x forward earnings estimates, a level it has only dropped below twice in the past four years. Historically, such declines have preceded significant stock rallies. The company, a leader in AI technology, has seen substantial revenue growth and profitability, driven by its innovative products and strong market position. Analysts suggest that Nvidia's stock may soon rise again, supported by its financial strength and ongoing advancements in AI.

Nvidia Stock Is Doing Something It's Only Done Twice Before in the Past 4 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next.

Intel has faced challenges in its PC CPU business, particularly with the disappointing launch of its desktop Arrow Lake CPUs. However, the laptop variant, Core Ultra 9 285H, has received positive reviews, outperforming AMD in performance and gaming benchmarks. Despite a decline in revenue and market share in the desktop segment, Intel is poised to regain ground in the laptop market with Arrow Lake and plans to launch Panther Lake later this year. The company is focusing on efficiency and performance, while AI capabilities remain a secondary concern for consumers.

Intel Just Pulled Ahead in This Key Market

The Hong Kong stock market has been active recently, with Alibaba expected to break through last year's high, benefiting from its technical cooperation with Apple. Apple's performance in Greater China has been poor, which Cook attributed to the lack of AI launches. Huawei's comeback and the increased attention on Xiaomi's automotive efforts have boosted market sentiment. JD.com’s entry into the food delivery industry has impacted Meituan's stock price, while JD LOGISTICS plans to hire 30,000 people, indicating business growth. BYD is seen as the most cost-effective asset, with potential for intelligence and internationalization

Hong Kong Stock Review: Riding the Windfall

Warren Buffett has sold 605 million shares of Apple, reducing Berkshire Hathaway's stake from 50% to 26% of its portfolio. In contrast, Berkshire initiated a position in Domino's Pizza, which has surged 3,400% since its IPO in 2004. Despite recent struggles, Domino's expects retail sales growth of at least 7% annually through 2028. Analysts predict Apple's earnings will grow 10% annually through 2026, but its current valuation may be too high, leading to recommendations for investors to reconsider their positions in Apple.