"The New Federal Reserve News Agency": Powell's overall remarks on July 1 showed almost no indication of any efforts to prepare for a rate cut this month

Nick Timiraos of the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" believes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell avoided a sharp question about July during his speech on July 1, refusing to rule out any possibilities just four weeks before the FOMC monetary policy meeting. His overall remarks hardly hinted at any efforts to prepare for a rate cut this month.

The focus on July (at least today) may overshadow a more subtle shift in his and others' comments in recent weeks. Shortly after U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on April 2, speculation arose that the increase in prices could be so significant that evidence of substantial weakness in the labor market would be needed to justify a rate cut.

Recently, as the tariff hikes have been paused and early (perhaps prematurely?) inflation data has not shown significant effects, Powell suggested that if inflation is not as severe as people fear, a rate cut may be back on the table