凉风说财经
2026.08.10 09:49

$Schwab US Div Eq(SCHD.US) has barely moved, yet the stock price has already hit a 52-week high, with RSI at 71.1 entering overbought territory. When high-dividend assets reach overbought levels, it's generally not because everyone suddenly loves dividends, but rather because interest rate expectations are trending downward.

Once the 10-year yield peaks, the relative attractiveness of dividend assets will automatically increase; this round of new highs is more likely pushed up by rates. The trouble is, if rate cuts actually materialize, the elasticity of growth stocks will immediately overshadow dividend assets—buying in at this current level, are you really earning from dividends or duration? My own calculation suggests it's more like the latter.

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