$Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) and $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US) have barely moved. The 3x leveraged long-term bond ETF gained less than a point over the day, with long-end interest rates remaining almost unchanged.
The market has currently priced in almost all rate cut expectations on the short end, but the long end hasn't followed suit in pricing. The trade on curve steepening hasn't truly started yet. With CPI coming next week, is this position in long-term bonds an opportunity for early positioning, or just another false start?
I'm currently more inclined to believe it's the former. The short end has already digested most of the rate cut path, leaving limited room for further moves, whereas the long end remains the segment that hasn't been fully priced in yet.
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