HK Stocks, A-Shares, Bonds, Commodities... Guolian An Macro Luo, August Market Outlook

Since the second half of 2026, the capital market has undergone a "sudden shift in style," with investment enthusiasm for A and H shares switching rapidly, leading to significant divergence in the popularity of major asset classes.

According to data from the Shanghai Securities News combined with the latest monthly survey results of public fund institutions, A and H shares became the most favored equity investment categories for public funds in August. After the tech sector's correction in July, attention to growth sectors declined, while interest in cyclical and value asset allocation rose significantly. Meanwhile, bond assets have become more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment, while commodities and US stocks have seen continued cooling in attention due to valuation and fundamental issues. Source: Shanghai Securities News "Public Fund Surveys Increase by Nearly 60%, Two Major Tracks Attracting Attention" 2026.7.27)

In response, Luo Chunpeng, Chief Strategy Analyst at Guolian Delian Fund and Deputy Director of the Pension and FOF Investment Department, interpreted that the strength of the Hong Kong stock market is an inevitable result of global capital "shifting from high to low."

I. Hong Kong Tech Assets Are at a Global Valuation Low

Luo Chunpeng pointed out that the recent surge in attention to the Hong Kong stock market is fundamentally an inevitable result of global capital rotating from "high to low." Its core advantages lie in three key characteristics: low correlation, low crowding, and low valuation, making the valuation 洼地 (depression/low) effect particularly prominent.

Taking the Hang Seng Stock Connect Internet Index as an example, its PE ratio is only 21.23 times, placing it in the 9.66th percentile over the past 10 years, essentially sitting at the bottom of historical ranges. Even the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Theme Index, which focuses more on Hong Kong tech assets, has a PE ratio of only 23.58 times, hovering around the median of the past three years.

In terms of performance, the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index fell 17.23% in the first half of the year, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect Internet Index dropped sharply by 35.53%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by over 100% during the same period.

Data Source: Wind, as of June 30, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

As the market pays more attention to the high crowding in the AI hardware track, the 含金量 (gold content/value) of valuation depressions like Hong Kong tech is becoming more prominent.

At the same time, Hong Kong stocks have a low correlation with the AI hardware valuation chain. To some extent, this can diversify risks during the phase where peripheral markets are crushing valuations. Additionally, since trading in this track is not crowded, it can fully absorb funds shifting out of the AI hardware sector. The valuation has dual advantages: a floor on the downside and elasticity on the upside.

On the other hand, the industrial logic of "AI Investment → Cloud Revenue → Subscription Monetization" has been validated, providing core fundamental support for the Hong Kong market rally. For instance, Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen large model reached a daily call volume of 1.4 trillion tokens, setting a global record. Tencent launched the Zixiao 2.0 chip, a 100,000-card computing power cluster, and the Agent platform ADP4.0, officially validating the business model for AI monetization among top cloud providers. Furthermore, the large-scale share repurchase wave in Hong Kong continues to boost market confidence. The total value of Hong Kong stock repurchases this year has reached HK$100.6 billion, with Tencent leading at HK$26.1 billion, and Xiaomi exceeding HK$10 billion, solidifying the bottom support of the market. (Relevant individual stocks do not constitute investment advice.)

Macro exchange rate developments also provide important positive support. Recently, the US Dollar DXY index hit a six-week low, and combined with joint currency intervention by the US, Japan, and South Korea, the pressure for RMB depreciation has significantly eased. Under the Hong Kong dollar linked exchange rate system, Hong Kong stocks directly benefit from the weakening US dollar and the revaluation of RMB assets.

Overall, Luo Chunpeng believes that Hong Kong stocks are one of the most cost-effective investment directions among global Chinese assets. He also reminded that the upside potential for subsequent Hong Kong stock market trends depends primarily on the ability of listed companies to deliver on their interim report earnings and the sustained implementation of AI commercialization.

Combining industrial and valuation advantages, three specific tracks should be closely watched in Hong Kong stocks currently: First, the internet platform track, relying on AI cloud services and Agent commercialization, coupled with large corporate buybacks to support prices, its valuation is at historical lows with ample room for repair; Second, the innovative drug track, where previous industry-suppressing factors like medical anti-corruption and BD policies have shown marginal easing, and sector valuations are also at historical lows, promising repair; Third, the high-dividend financial track, which possesses robust defensive attributes and provides sufficient investment safety margins.

II. Mid-term A-share Earnings Leaders Expected to Recover

Regarding the difference in investment value between A and H shares, Luo Chunpeng believes that the A-share tech sector is still digesting previous trading crowding, and market recovery will take time.

From a mid-term perspective, A-shares may experience a style switch. After interim earnings are verified, tech leaders with strong earnings delivery capabilities will regain excess returns.

The recent adjustment in A-shares is a liquidity shock, not the end of the logic. The AI industrial trend has not been disproven. Whether it is the continued year-on-year high growth in CapEx by the four major cloud providers or the continuous verification of earnings by upstream industry chain leaders, all show a strong industrial prosperity trend. After the market adjustment, the crowding in tech trading has been significantly released, and the stampede of margin accounts has basically ended. The earnings delivery of the TMT price-increase chain will drive valuation repair. When the commercialization inflection point for AI applications appears, the main industrial thread may shift from "expanding CapEx" to "Token commercialization."

However, Luo Chunpeng also candidly admitted that the difficulty of future investment lies in increased differentiation; pure thematic targets without earnings will continue to be abandoned. Additionally, the extreme 抱团 (huddling together) 行情 (market trend) of the past is unlikely to repeat; the recovery is a structural rebound with a ceiling. Moreover, the volatile 走势 (trend) of US semiconductor stocks and the aftermath of South Korea's deleveraging could bring input shocks to the A-share market. In short, rebuilding confidence is not a one-day task. August is likely to see "range-bound oscillation and differentiated repair" rather than a simple V-shaped reversal.

The allocation logic for the three core asset classes—growth, cyclical, and value—is as follows:

Growth (Tech): Overall in a stage of oversold recovery; there is no need for excessive pessimism, but investment logic must be completely switched. Abandon pure thematic speculation and focus on targets with verified earnings. Key areas include communication equipment, semiconductor equipment, AI applications, and innovative drugs.

Cyclical Sector: Overall room for recovery is limited. The core driver of the market trend is the rotation of market funds "from high to low," not a fundamental improvement in industry fundamentals. Traditional domestic demand remains weak. There are only structural opportunities: the non-ferrous metals sector benefits from the weakening US dollar and geopolitical premium (mainly gold, copper, aluminum), while the chemical sector sees a recovery driven by the resonance of price and inventory cycles.

Value (Dividend/Low Valuation): The domestic low-interest-rate environment persists, continuously enhancing the attractiveness of high-dividend value assets. Their low-volatility characteristics can effectively enhance the defensiveness of investment portfolios, possessing long-term allocation value.

III. Rising Bond Attention, Weaker Allocation Value for US Stocks and Commodities

Regarding the current pattern of diverging heat across major asset classes, Luo Chunpeng analyzed that the rising attention to bond assets is mainly because, in a domestic low-interest-rate environment, high-yield assets are scarce, and bond-type assets can provide stable returns. Simultaneously, after the sharp correction of the tech sector in July, concerns about risks in equity assets intensified, risk appetite declined, further driving funds to increase allocations to bond assets.

Meanwhile, attention to commodities and US stocks continues to decline, supported by clear logic: On one hand, weak domestic demand and rising expectations of global economic slowdown suppress the overall commodity market. On the other hand, US stock valuations are at high levels, with the CAPE ratio reaching 39.5 times, a historical high. Concerns about an AI bubble are intensifying, compounded by the risk transmission from the Korean leveraged ETF incident, reducing the attractiveness of US stock allocations.

Risk Warning: Individual stocks mentioned in the text are for objective display only and do not constitute investment advice. The above content represents only the market views of Guolian Delian Fund at that time. The market involves risks, and investment requires caution. This material is prepared based on publicly available information deemed reliable by Guolian Delian Fund. Under any circumstances, the information or opinions expressed in this material do not constitute investment advice for anyone, nor do they serve as promotional materials or any legal documents. Investors should not regard these viewpoints as the sole reference factor for making investment decisions, nor should they believe they can replace their own judgment. Investors bear all risks and consequences of their investment behaviors themselves.