Goldman Sachs has recently raised its global AI PCB/CCL market forecast. The AI PCB TAM for 2027 is adjusted upward from $27.1 billion to $37.5 billion, a 38% increase; the AI CCL TAM is adjusted upward from $18.7 billion to $22.1 billion, an 18% increase. By 2028, the market sizes for both will further reach $83.6 billion and $47.5 billion, corresponding to CAGRs of 148% and 161% respectively for 2026–2028. Among these, the ASIC side sees a larger upward revision: the 2027 ASIC PCB TAM is increased by 67% compared to previous forecasts, and the CCL TAM by 44%. The ramp-up of CSP self-developed chips is expanding the demand base for the PCB industry chain.

In terms of growth drivers, both volume and ASP are in an upward cycle. AI PCB shipments are expected to increase from 1.3 million square meters in 2026 to 4.5 million square meters in 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 85%; CCL shipments will rise from 42 million sheets to 131 million sheets, with a CAGR of about 77%. During the same period, the comprehensive ASP for PCBs rises from $10,300/square meter to $18,500/square meter, while CCL ASP increases from $165/sheet to $362/sheet. Calculated over 2026–2028, the ASP CAGRs for PCBs and CCLs are approximately 34% and 48% respectively. The value added by specification upgrades has already approached or even exceeded some shipment growth rates.

Product structure continues to concentrate at the high end. In 2028, PCBs with more than 30 layers are expected to account for 47% of the multi-layer PCB TAM, a significant increase from 18% in 2026; the proportion of HDI with 6+N+6 and above layers in the HDI TAM is projected to rise from 30% to 66%. Changes on the CCL side are faster: materials M9 and above accounted for only 7% in 2026, rising to 41% in 2027 and reaching 58% in 2028, corresponding to a TAM of approximately $27.8 billion. The penetration of high-layer-count, advanced HDI, and M9 materials directly drives up the single-machine PCB/CCL value and raises the entry barriers for yield, process, and material systems.

Demand remains dominated by the expansion of AI full racks. Goldman Sachs expects AI server rack shipments to grow from 19,000 units in 2025 to 55,000 in 2026, 105,000 in 2027, and 163,000 in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 190%, 89%, and 56% for 2026–2028 respectively. Meanwhile, the Rubin Ultra architecture introduces higher-specification board materials, and backplane designs are considered in the NVL144 solution, leaving room for further increases in PCB usage area and single-machine value.

The supply-side capacity expansion speed is difficult to fully replicate nominal capacity growth rates. High-layer PCBs and high-end CCLs have higher unit capacity consumption and lower yields. Goldman Sachs expects industry capacity utilization to remain high for the next two years. At the company level, Shengyi Technology benefits from M9 upgrades and GPU expansion to ASIC customers. Goldman Sachs predicts its net profit will grow by 104% and 73% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with AI server-related revenue accounting for about 40% in 2027. Shenghong Technology is currently in the phase of releasing Thai production capacity and ramping up high-layer PCB volumes.

The core indicators for monitoring current PCB/CCL prosperity are now relatively clear: AI full rack shipments, ASIC server ramp-ups, penetration rates of advanced HDI and M9 materials, and the pace of effective capacity release by leading manufacturers. If these variables continue to materialize, incremental profits in the industry chain will still primarily concentrate on suppliers of high-specification materials and high-end PCBs.

This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute securities investment advice.