The cancellation of tenure at Tongji University in 2026 is just the beginning.

Within two years, all 985 universities will follow suit; within five years, it will roll out to all 211 universities, with pilot programs for regular first-tier institutions. This is almost an inevitable trend, and the reasons are not complex—just two.

First, there are too many PhDs. To what extent has the expansion of PhD programs gone? Some professors can supervise two or three PhD graduates a year, or even more. When this batch graduates and floods into academia, a single ordinary lecturer position will receive hundreds of resumes. With oversupply, universities naturally gain the confidence and leverage to pick and choose. In the past, schools begged excellent PhDs to join them; now, PhDs beg schools for a spot. Tenure? In the face of supply and demand, it's just a benefit that can be cancelled at any time.

Second, the results have become too formulaic. A few years ago, publishing one SCI paper could earn you respect. Now, everyone knows how to "template"—swapping data, models, and variables, turning paper production into an assembly line. While the volume of achievements rises, their actual value is severely diluted. Universities have realized: rather than spending big money to support a group of "permanent professors" who only produce low-quality work, it's better to switch to "regular assessments, with promotion and demotion based on performance." As for how to assess? Papers, projects, and titles must all be included.

A harsher prediction lies ahead: National Natural Science Foundation general programs will replace youth funds, becoming the "new passing line" for young faculty assessments. Previously, getting a youth fund allowed you to breathe easy; now, it's merely an entry ticket. Want to stay? You must secure a general program. And as you know, the difficulty of a general program is no joke.

To put it bluntly, universities are shifting from "iron rice bowls" to "contract workers." The rat race has just begun. Looking back in two years, Tongji's reform today may well be the starting gun for the entire academic circle's move towards "de-tenuring."

Ten years of hard study for an iron rice bowl—that dream should wake up now.