$SpaceX(SPCX.US)Reviewing yesterday's market: Why didn't the anticipated crash happen, and why was there a surge at the close? What about future trends?

First, why no crash?

Real selling pressure usually doesn't occur on the lock-up expiration day. Block trade matching, the activation of 10b5-1 plans, and underwriter placements all take days to weeks. The fact that it didn't drop today only means "there was no concentrated dumping on the day," not that supply has disappeared. This design of phased release is more like a dripping faucet than a burst pipe; it reduces single-day impact but keeps potential supply hanging overhead for months—so the expiration date is unlikely to form a clean, immediately identifiable bottom.

Second, why the surge at the close?

One-third of SPCX's float is shorted. These positions were largely built on a specific thesis: "8/6 expiration, nearly a billion shares dumped, price will crash." This is an event-driven short position. Event-driven positions have a fatal flaw: once the event passes without materializing, the position loses its reason for existence. If you hold on, you pay borrow interest and bear unlimited upside risk, while the catalyst you bet on has vanished. So the rational move is to close the position immediately.

Why at the close rather than a uniform rise throughout the day?

Confirmation takes time. You can't know in the morning if anyone is actually selling. You have to wait until the afternoon, watching the order flow show no massive sell pressure, before concluding "the thesis was proven false." The judgment forms in the afternoon, so execution happens at the close.

Afraid to hold overnight. With Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 AM tomorrow, and shorts just getting slapped, no one wants to stay naked short against a macro event.

True long-term buying looks different. Institutions use VWAP-style algorithms to spread orders across the entire day, resulting in a steady upward trend throughout. The concentrated surge at the close is "money in a hurry"—forced, deadline-driven buying.

Leveraged ETFs add fuel to the fire. Those single-stock 2x inverse SPCX ETFs must rebalance before the daily close; as the stock rises, they must buy back exposure. This mechanical buying also piles up at the close.

Understanding these two issues clarifies future trends:

Covering is a one-time event; once bought, it's gone. Moreover, covered shorts are no longer potential buyers (short interest itself is a reserve of future buying power, and covering consumes it). New long-term capital, however, is continuous and will buy for several consecutive days. Therefore, today's rise doesn't automatically imply tomorrow's rise.

Supply-demand imbalance and massive liquidity inflow into the market are unrelated to whether the company has long-term value; it's essentially a liquidity digestion issue. Thus, a decline is highly probable after the rise. I even believe the night session will fall back to around 110.