SGOV
HSBC CommentatorTo analyze A-shares, you can refer to:
Stock-bond spread, deposit-to-market-cap ratio, turnover-to-M2 ratio, margin balance-to-total market cap ratio, turnover rate, China-US interest rate spread, financing interest rate, SHIBOR.
If you want to backtest, you can use the 2015 stock market crash data for backtesting to reasonably estimate the next threshold.
For US stocks, of course, it's volatility, VIX, VIXN, VVIX, and some CBOE volatility indicators (I posted them before, everyone can find and save them).
I came across this news today. Since the prediction was accurate, I'll learn from their method. At the time, I also thought they were creating panic for no reason, but looking back, I was wrong. Although many economists in the A-share market are considered 'brick experts' (fake experts), I prefer to learn from others' strengths;
Yang Delong, who switched from engineering at Tsinghua University to economics at Peking University, has quite a large academic span. In terms of data, he focuses on the ratio of margin trading balance to circulating market cap (calculating growth rate using the control variable method) compared to 2015, and his prediction regarding short-term individual stock pullbacks triggering negative feedback by 20% was also accurate.
Therefore, we can consider creating a factor based on this or paying attention to this economist's research methodology.
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