The US Dollar Index hit its highest level since February, VIX closed at 18.8, and oil prices surged nearly two points in a single day—a recipe of shrinking risk appetite and resilient inflation is driving capital toward "certainty."
Today, the defensive sector absorbed this inflow: $DATANG POWER(00991.HK) and $CGN POWER(01816.HK) both rose by around five percent, while $CTIHK(06055.HK) gained four to five percent; assets with thick dividends and stable cash flows were collectively repriced higher. Conversely, $ExxonMobil(XOM.US) remained flat, as major US oil and gas stocks have already priced in one round of geopolitical premiums.
This can be interpreted as the start of a stagflation trade, or simply defensive catch-up gains within broader market rotation. The way to distinguish is not complicated: watch whether the next CPI data and oil prices can continue moving in the same direction. If they do, it's the former.
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