This round of oil price increases is driven by the supply side: WTI has climbed to $83, rising nearly two points in a single day, while the geopolitical premium from the Middle East continues to accumulate, and the US Dollar Index has simultaneously surged to its highest level since February.

In the stock market, $CNOOC(00883.HK) rose by five percent today with increased volume; Southbound capital's preference for high-dividend oil and gas stocks, combined with rising oil prices, has led to smooth performance. $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) remained flat, while $SHANDONG MOLONG(00568.HK) saw a slight increase. Large-cap US stocks and small-cap oil service stocks showed lower sensitivity to geopolitical factors.

On the same day, copper prices also rose, but this was due to supply disruptions in Latin America, not a demand signal—the combination of rising oil and copper prices alongside a strengthening dollar resembles the onset of stagflation rather than recovery. The geopolitical premium can be withdrawn overnight as well; for oil and gas positions, it's best to take the main body of the fish (the middle part of the move) rather than gambling on the tail end.