SOFI Commentator$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)
Personal view: AI stocks will bottom out on Monday, July 20. The most likely time window is from Friday afternoon Eastern Time to Monday morning.
Why?
Today looks more like a capitulation sell-off rather than the start of a new bear market trend.
TSMC reported excellent earnings, but semiconductor stocks are still falling significantly. If good news can't lift stock prices, it usually indicates forced selling pressure rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
Friday is the monthly options expiration date, which could cause additional mechanical selling pressure. Mondays often become the final washout where panic peaks and positions are readjusted.
The next major catalyst is the earnings reports from big tech companies, starting next week. Markets often begin pricing this in before the reports are released.
In my opinion, there is about a 70% chance that the AI sector will bottom out on Friday or Monday.
If I had to pick one day, it would be Monday, July 20.
The AI story remains intact. This looks more like an emotional reset rather than the end of a cycle.
This is not financial advice... just my two cents. Let's wait and see. I think it's almost over.
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