The new non-farm payroll data is out, the World Cup employment boom has receded, and the real data has emerged.
Looking at the non-farm payroll from a neglected perspective 🤣
Friday's non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, causing market panic, but looking deeper, this is actually an overreaction misled by short-term events:
1. The data that far exceeded expectations was mainly due to a sudden increase of 70,000 jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector in a single month. These are almost all temporary or part-time hires for the June World Cup.
2. Excluding the tournament boost, sectors that truly represent the underlying economy, such as finance and retail, are actually laying off or halting hiring. The suppression of high interest rates on businesses is very evident.
The younger brother thinks:
This non-farm payroll report is a "false prosperity" embellished by the World Cup. Once the tournament ends in July and the temporary worker wave recedes, the employment data will inevitably reveal its true colors. The underlying economic cooling trend remains unchanged. Investors need not panic over short-term noise; expectations for interest rate cuts will be restored later. Also, the subsequent CPI index is a more important reference.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)
你觉得市场反应过度了吗？
Single Choice
- 是81%
- 不是18%
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
