Likes ReceivedMicrosoft is almost at the add-on position point.
Updated calculations after the Big Seven's earnings reports.
1. Google
Cloud revenue grew 63%, unfulfilled orders surged, EPS year-over-year growth was 82%, explosive (Q1 included investment gains, Q2 won't have this growth rate). As the value chain shifts from upstream chipmakers towards large model applications, it's crucial to actively engage with multiple cloud providers. The likelihood of a major future drop is low, and it's expected to surpass NVIDIA soon to become the number one company by market cap in the US stock market.
Adjustment range:
Add positions at $300-330, reduce positions at $420-450, limit $520.
2. Amazon
AWS accelerated to 28% growth, the fastest in 15 quarters. Both cloud and advertising are accelerating, and retail gross margins are expanding. Similar to Google, orders for self-developed chips are rapidly increasing.
Add positions at $215-245, reduce positions at $300-320, limit $390.
3. Microsoft
Cloud growth at 40%, growth rate is relatively slow. The entire chain hasn't been fully validated by the capital market yet, needs further observation.
Add positions at $370-400, reduce positions at $475-490, limit $520.
4. Apple
Apple is a consumer electronics company with strong consumer resilience. Revenue +17% exceeded expectations, iPhone +22%. If the foldable screen comes out in October, further gains are expected.
Add positions at $230-260, reduce positions at $310-330, limit $380.
TSLA remains unchanged, as it never had strong fundamentals to begin with. NVDA awaits earnings. Based on EPS330 (announced by JPMorgan), PE 21x, the market's base price is 6930. Currently, S&P 500 companies, especially the Big Seven, have significantly exceeded expectations this quarter. The market's 2026 high point, adjusted upward by 10% for year-end over-expectations, is 6930*1.1=7623. Q2 will provide timely corrections.
Traveling for a month starting next week, often with poor signal. Will return to check the market on 6/3. Main positions are in NVIDIA/Tesla/Microsoft/Micron/SNDK. The most crucial piece missing from the portfolio is Google, waiting for an opportunity.
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