US stock market review for April 24

Semiconductors rose for the 18th consecutive session as expected, big short Michael Burry started shorting; NVDA finally hit a new closing high; LLY growth slowing down?

Today, the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs again, with the Nasdaq 100 up nearly 2%. Everyone's profits should be good, another happy weekend 😄

However, only 35% of the S&P 500 constituents rose, and the upward momentum came almost entirely from tech and semiconductor stocks. Other sectors performed poorly, not a sign of overall strength, so don't be overly optimistic.

Semiconductor SOXX
It's up 53% this year, 40% since April, and 40% for the whole of 2025.
This straight-line rally has reached historically extreme overbought levels and is unsustainable!
Don't be too surprised when it plummets straight down later.

Big short Michael Burry
Bought SOXX put options expiring in January 2027 with a strike price of $330.
Burry wrote: I know the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will pull back, and the older generation of semiconductor professionals knows it too. The current rally is more due to technical factors. The narrative of chip shortages is very powerful amid the massive expansion of data centers.

Shorting reminder‼️
Burry is shorting after severe overbought conditions, a purely technical approach, and does not mean he is bearish on semiconductor fundamentals.
I understand some friends have followed his shorts before. Shorting is a battle between institutions, and retail investors are never advised to short. Any overbought conditions, rapid rises, or high valuations are not reasons for retail investors to short.
Including my recent comments about ADBE being doomed in the future, if you don't like it, just remove it from your watchlist, don't short it!

NVDA
Finally followed the strength of semiconductors and hit a new closing high.
Due to its massive market cap, it moves relatively slowly within semiconductors, but slow movement means stable movement. The support at 180-190 is very strong, and it's expected to be the most resilient even if semiconductors pull back later.

Future outlook:
My largest holding, no plans to reduce position for now, still optimistic about new highs in the future.

LLY
Fell another 3.6% today, recent news all negative for oral weight-loss drugs, down 20% from the peak.
Negative factors include:
Approval delays;
Post-market FDA request for additional safety evidence;
NVO's first-mover advantage, putting LLY at a competitive disadvantage in prescription growth rates.

Future outlook:
Technical: Worried about breaking support during the session, but thankfully it recovered, didn't break! Still at strong support.
Fundamentals: Earnings next week. If forward guidance isn't lowered, the current price is undervalued; even if guidance is lowered, the current price isn't expensive. Interested friends, this is where to start a left-side accumulation strategy.