Pre-market Snapshot for US Stocks on April 24, 2026:

I. Pre-market Overview and Core Contradiction

The three major index futures are extremely divergent: Dow Jones futures down 0.27%, S&P 500 futures up 0.34%, Nasdaq 100 futures surging 1.22%. Today's core contradiction has shifted from "concerns over AI valuation bubble" to "validation of AI computing power demand paradigm shift." Intel's earnings report exceeding expectations has completely shattered the pessimistic narrative of "AI growth peaking," triggering a systematic revaluation of the semiconductor sector.

II. Intel Earnings Report: A Complete Correction of AI Strategic Pricing

Intel is surging 28.3% pre-market (implied opening price $112.7, hitting a new all-time high). This is not an ordinary earnings beat:

- Core Expectation Gap: Market consensus expected AI chip revenue of $1.8-2 billion, but actual revenue was $2.76 billion, exceeding expectations by 45%. The share of AI business jumped from 12% to 21%.

- Capital Expenditure Guidance: Raised to $38-40 billion for the full year (previously $32 billion), with 70% allocated to advanced process and AI chip capacity, validating the persistence of the industry supply-demand gap.

- Spillover Effect: The market is revaluating undervalued AI computing power plays. AMD is up 10.7% (absorbing Intel's overflow demand), ARM is up 8.4%, and TSMC ADR is up 1.5% (70% of Intel's advanced process orders are outsourced).

III. Fund Flows: From "Crowding into Leaders" to "Supply Chain Diffusion"

Funds are mainly flowing out of defensive sectors and previously overextended pure-software AI companies, rather than being rotated within tech. A clear "hardware-first for computing power" logic is emerging. Gains in memory (Micron +1.7%), foundries, and server chips are significantly higher than those of AI software companies. NVIDIA is only up 0.6%, indicating the market is no longer betting on a single leader and is starting to dig into undervalued parts of the supply chain, a healthy signal for continued market momentum.

IV. Macro and Geopolitical Marginal Impacts

WTI crude oil up 0.25% to $96.10/barrel, Brent up 0.62% to $105.72/barrel. The second round of US-Iran talks is progressing slowly. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains but is partially priced in. The probability of a June interest rate cut has dropped from 42% to 28%, but tech stocks are reacting mildly. The current core driver is corporate earnings, not monetary policy. If the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 22:00 shows rising inflation expectations, it could create short-term pressure.

V. Key Trading Observation Points

1. Whether Intel's opening price is above $110. If turnover exceeds 3% within the first 15 minutes and the stock price holds above $108, the trend is confirmed.

2. Whether the S&P 500 can effectively break through the historical resistance at 7180 points. A breakout on high volume would open up upside to 7250 points.

3. If the volume of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index exceeds 1.5 times its daily average, it confirms systematic fund inflows.

4. If Intel's intraday gain falls back below 15%, it may trigger profit-taking in semiconductors.

Risk Warning

Intel's optimism may have overextrapolated future expectations. A breakdown in US-Iran talks could push oil prices higher, limiting room for rate cuts. Next week's earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Meta falling short of expectations could trigger a broader tech sector adjustment.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)