To be honest, what worries me most about this earnings report is not the performance itself, but the capital expenditure.
The full-year 2026 capex guidance given last Q4 was $175-185 billion, almost double. The stock price took a hit back then. If management raises it again this time, even if EPS and cloud business all beat expectations, the stock price will still fall.
The market has already priced in cloud growth >50%. Q4 was already at 48%. Failing to reach 50+ this time would be negative news. The bar has been set very high.
My judgment: The performance itself is highly likely to exceed expectations. Search, ads, and cloud—all three legs are still running. But the stock's short-term reaction will depend on the capex guidance, not the performance numbers themselves.
I've cut my position by half pre-market. The rest I'm prepared to hold through. I won't make the decision to run early.$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)
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