Uranium ETF rose 7.4% today, driven by the dual narratives of accelerated Iran uranium reserve negotiations and decarbonization demand for nuclear energy;

However, the judgment of a macro soft landing can be cross-verified from the banking sector: Bank of America only fell slightly by 0.7%, while China Merchants Bank rose 0.3%. Both banks showed no significant unusual movements—a relatively calm response in an environment with a yield curve of about 51 basis points.

One interpretation is that the market believes the probability of a soft landing has increased, so banks do not need further discounting; another interpretation is that the direction of interest rates remains uncertain, and the logic of suppressing bank valuations has not been lifted.

I believe the rise in uranium is more event-driven, and whether it can be sustained depends on the direction of the Iran negotiations, rather than the internal consistency of the macro narrative itself.