20 US dollars? Now $AXT(AXTI.US) is just over $3. Who gave this target price isn't important; what matters is whether the logic behind this number holds up. I skimmed through the reasoning in this research report—the core argument is just one: the InP (Indium Phosphide) substrate line needs to expand its capacity to more than three times AXTI's current capacity this year to meet the rigid demand from AI optical modules and silicon photonics. If that number is correct, $20 isn't actually exaggerated; it's rather conservative. But I have to tell some hard truths. The biggest problem with AXTI's stock isn't its valuation; it's execution capability and geopolitical risk. Its main production capacity is in the suburbs of Beijing, and over the past two years, it has been shut down and restarted several times due to environmental assessment and compliance issues. The discount the market has been giving it isn't because it's "not optimistic about the InP track," but because it "doesn't believe AXTI can deliver stably." You can't pretend not to see this. If you really want to bet on the InP theme, there are actually a few more "indirect paths" that are steadier—COHR for optical communications, IIVI for silicon photonics, and even local companies backed by the big fund. AXTI is a high-beta option that offers "the greatest returns if everything goes smoothly," not a steady option that "outperforms on fundamentals."