Not selling some options on PLTR with this IV is a waste, let's look at a practical structure. 🙌

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is currently at $108.30, and the IV Percentile has already surged to 82. Honestly, when I saw this percentile, my first thought wasn't 'should I chase it,' but rather 'at this point in time, not selling some premium would be a disservice to this volatility.' PLTR is quite a special stock. Retail sentiment has been extremely polarized over the past few years, with rapid long/short turnover. Its IV is naturally a notch higher than software stocks of similar size. Coupled with the Q1 earnings expectations in early May, the recent enthusiasm from option buyers has pushed IV even higher. This environment is unfriendly to naked buyers and increases the odds for sellers.

First, break down the market structure:

IV30 58.4%, IV Percentile 82 – very expensive. Naked calls/puts are just giving money to the counterparty.
Put/Call Ratio 0.82, sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish, not yet crowded.
Skew is steep to the upside – the market is pricing in tail risk of 'a short squeeze causing a spike.' This is key, meaning selling upside calls doesn't offer good value.
GEX magnetic levels: Dense call wall above $115 is the ceiling; structural support from a put wall below $95.

Strategy: Bull Put Spread (DTE 45, Expiring 6/5)

Why choose this:
IV is at an extremely expensive percentile, giving sellers the edge – that's point one.
Skew shape shows selling puts offers better value than selling calls – selling puts captures higher IV premium, and the $95 put wall support is a structural floor.
Upside is capped by the $115 call wall, limiting directional long upside. Better to structure a 'win if support holds' trade.

Specific strikes:
Sell $95 put, collect ~$4.2 premium
Buy $85 put, pay ~$1.8 premium
Net credit $2.4, which is the max profit
Max loss $7.6/share ($95-$85-$2.4)

Why choose $95/$85:
$95 is right at the put wall, the strongest GEX support point. The next lower strike, $85, is bought as a protective leg to avoid unlimited loss in case of an earnings black swan.

Entry condition: Enter if IV continues to rise or if PLTR pulls back to the $105-108 range. Do not chase selling puts above $110.

Admit mistake condition: If it breaks below $94 (breaking through the put wall), close the position immediately. The stop-loss is just below the put wall. If triggered, it means the market structure has changed – don't hold on. Loss at this point would be around $3-4/share.

⚠️Risks:

1. Q1 earnings fall significantly short of expectations, causing a gap down below $95 (low probability but exists, this is the main risk).
2. Negative news related to government contracts (PLTR's biggest vulnerability has always been narrative, not fundamentals).
3. IV crush after earnings is good, but if IV rises further beforehand, floating losses will increase first.

Frankly, the odds of this structure are 0.32 ($2.4 vs. $7.6), which doesn't look sexy. But stocks with a win rate of 70%+ naturally won't have attractive odds – seller strategies profit from probability differentials, not explosive gains. I've tried similar structures on PLTR three times in the past, twice collecting full premium, once losing half, net positive overall.