Watch a show this weekend!

$SSE Index(000001.SH)  This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6%, while the ChiNext Index surged 6.65%. Today, the 'stock king' title changed hands again — Yuanjie Technology from the STAR Market soared to 1445 yuan, coinciding with Kweichow Moutai's disappointing first-quarter report, allowing it to directly claim the throne.

With first-quarter reports flooding in during April, it's truly a case of mixed fortunes. Companies with earnings beating expectations are soaring, while those with earnings bombs are getting trampled by capital. The market has fully entered a phase of 'judging by performance.'

 

The biggest surprise is that the stock king, Kweichow Moutai, actually dropped an earnings bomb! After being listed for so many years, it's the first time both revenue and profit have declined simultaneously: annual revenue was 168.8 billion yuan, down 1.21%; net profit was 82.3 billion yuan, down 4.53%. Actually, it's not surprising when you think about it. Baijiu consumption has been falling for the past two years, and even the stock king can't hold up. Today, Moutai opened with a gap-down, falling nearly 4% on high volume.

 

Looking at the leading computing power stocks on the other side, it's a world of difference.

 

The optical module leader, Zhongji Innolight, released its Q1 report on April 17th. Q1 revenue was 19.496 billion yuan, up 192% year-over-year; net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.735 billion yuan, up 262% year-over-year, with cash flow also showing significant growth. It continued to surge today, hitting a new high, with its market cap once reaching 945.6 billion yuan! Led by the core optical module sector, the ChiNext Index directly hit another 11-year high, with the next target being the all-time high!

 

This market environment is completely an era where the strong with solid earnings get stronger. But then again, speculation based on earnings is much better than blindly chasing concepts, right?

 

Right now, the easiest plays on the board are still the 'Yi Zhongtian' + PCB (the Google & NVIDIA setup). Facts prove that choice is more important than effort, and understanding is more important than ability. The strongest resonance on the board is still the AI computing power hardware main theme, with strength concentrated in optical modules, optical communication, PCBs, glass substrates, and some semiconductor equipment.

 

The market is basically being pulled up hard by optics (CPO), with the profit effect in large-cap trending stocks. The 7-day limit-up stock, Shengyang, clearly doesn't have the same driving power as the past two days. Next week's move from 7 to 8 limit-ups is highly likely to see divergence. The differentiation is quite severe now. Consensus on optics is too unanimous, making it easy to top out and then see capital stampede. Historically, when consensus reaches a certain level, it's often a signal of a top.

 

Now let's look at the themes:

 

1. Computing Power CPO
Still the main theme of the market today. Why? First, the fundamental catalysts are too strong. Earnings of Zhongji Innolight's caliber directly reflect booming industry conditions. Second, the industry logic continues to be confirmed by policies and corporate capacity expansion. The announcement of Xe Chuang Data's capital increase in Guangwei Technology clearly states that the 'East Data, West Computing' project and Guangdong's optical chip action plan will bring sustained demand pull for high-speed optical modules. AI computing power growth directly drives the expansion of demand for high-performance optical modules. Han's Laser's annual report also mentioned that the company is rising rapidly in the AI computing power PCB-specific equipment market, has completed certification for next-generation AI server PCB processing, and achieved mass production at several leading companies.

 

This is a historic moment for A-shares, also marking CPO entering the most euphoric stage of sentiment. But a reminder is necessary: those with a safety cushion can continue to hold; those without a position, absolutely do not chase high now! After the climax, there will inevitably be divergence. Once the adjustment starts, the force won't be small.

 

2. AI Applications
Overseas, Microsoft and Google Cloud's AI revenue has grown over 50% for multiple consecutive quarters. Domestically, token usage is also exploding. The prosperity of AI applications is beyond doubt. The only downside is that earnings realization is slower, causing some hesitation among institutions. But the advantages are also obvious: fully adjusted, low valuation, low position. Can pay appropriate attention later.

 

3. Lithium Battery
The ChiNext Index broke to new highs driven by large-cap tech stocks. CATL led the adjustment, and its overall driving power is also weakening. In a low-volume environment, the tech sector will have a siphon effect on other sectors, with the strong getting stronger. Short-term view remains on divergence. For related stocks with high volume and significant divergence, it's recommended to take profits on rallies and not chase highs.

 

4. Commercial Aerospace
Overseas, Amazon acquired Globalstar for $11.6 billion, directly challenging Starlink. Domestically, two batches of satellites were launched within 48 hours, and the Lijian-1 rocket is about to launch, with catalysts coming one after another. Commercial aerospace remained active today. The sector is still in a phase of localized activity, not a full-blown breakout. Can continue to pay appropriate attention.

 

Watch the negotiation situation over the weekend. If there is substantial progress, then oil prices will definitely fall. Add positions and go all out for a wave. If there's no substantial progress, then the strategy is the same as this week. Use flexible positions for swing trading. At this level, maintain a 60% core position, use the rest for swing trading, still betting on first-quarter reports, and buy the dips when opportunities arise.