Friday, April 17th - Market Thoughts and Strategy

Market information is very concentrated today, but the core is actually quite simple.

Geopolitical risk cooling + oil price plummeting + sentiment driving the index upward at an accelerated pace.

Key pre-market signals

The biggest change from last night to this morning's pre-market.

Iran released signals of easing tensions
Strait of Hormuz reopened for traffic.

The direct result is

Crude oil plunging
Inflation expectations falling back.

Risk assets being re-priced.

Pre-market futures are performing very strongly.

ES hit a high of 7135.

Currently trading around 7130.

Corresponding to SPX around the 7095 level.

Based on calculations,

The weekly limit is at 7116 ES.
The monthly limit is at 7160 ES.

The current level is already very close to the upper limit range.

II. The Nature of the Current Market

This rally is not driven by fundamentals,

but rather

sentiment recovery + short covering + falling oil prices

driving an accelerated move.

Simply put,

It's rising because nothing worse is happening,
not because things are getting better.

III. Key Levels Today

The pivot is still 6750.

But it has clearly moved away from the pivot now,

entering a high-level sentiment zone.

Above:

7095 current index level
~7130 corresponding futures pressure
7160 monthly limit.

This area belongs to the

sentiment exhaustion zone.

Not a comfortable place to go long.

Below:

6950 short-term support
6715 key support
6665 strong support.

IV. Market Rhythm Today

It's easy for the market to move in two phases today.

Strong continuation in the morning session,
divergence starting during the session.

If there's insufficient follow-through after a surge higher,

a pullback is very likely.

V. Trading Thoughts

The most important point today:

Don't chase highs.

Going long:

Only consider after a pullback,

e.g., near 6950 or lower.

Consider only if there's follow-through.

Going short:

Focus on the high levels,

around 7130 or near the 7160 range.

If there's

failure to break higher,
high-volume stagnation,
or a rapid decline,

consider light participation.

VI. Signals to Watch Today

First: Oil price.

If it continues to fall,

tech stocks can still hold up.

If the big tech stocks in the market start to weaken,

it will be hard for the index to keep pushing up.

Third: Volume.

If the rise is not accompanied by volume,

it's basically an exhaustion move.

VII. Stocks to Watch Today

TSLA

NVDA

MU

AVGO

GOOGL

TSM

VIII. Risk Points

The biggest problem now is not whether it will fall,

but

who will be left holding the bag at the high.

If today sees

a surge followed by a decline,
or failure to hold at highs,

it's basically a signal for a short-term turning point.

IX. A Core Judgment

The current level

is already close to the weekly limit of 7116
and approaching the monthly limit of 7160.

There is room to go higher,

but the risk-reward is very poor.

X. Summary

The nature of today's market action

is not a trend move,

but rather

an accelerated segment driven by sentiment.

In terms of operations,

Better to miss it
than to make a mistake.

Waiting for a pullback
is more important than chasing highs.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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