$SD GOLD(01787.HK)

1. The long-term logic for gold prices remains intact.

◦ Global central banks continue to buy gold (China has been increasing its holdings for several consecutive months).

◦ The Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, and falling real interest rates are favorable for gold.

◦ Geopolitical factors and de-dollarization provide long-term support.

2. Shandong Gold itself is strong.

◦ Significant performance growth in 2025: Revenue of 100 billion, net profit of 4.739 billion (+60.57%).

◦ Overseas capacity release, Saudi cooperation materializes.

◦ Institutional target prices generally range from 48.8 to 52.5 yuan (over 25% higher than the current price).

IV. Simple Judgment (Should you wait for a big surge?)

• Want a short-term surge (1-2 weeks): Low probability, more likely to fluctuate between 37-41 yuan.

• Want a medium-term surge (3-6 months):

◦ Wait for two signals:

1. The Fed sends a clear signal of interest rate cuts.

2. International gold prices stabilize above 4800.