$Venture Global(VG.US)'s options flow was marked "Unusually active" three consecutive times on March 12th, 19th, and 24th, with a directional bias towards long calls. The Iran conflict damaged Qatar's RasGas, causing global LNG spot prices to surge. VG, as an alternative supplier in the Gulf of Mexico, directly benefits. Morgan Stanley subsequently raised its target price from $11 to $19.
Current IV is significantly higher than historical volatility due to geopolitical risk premium, and the put/call ratio is low, indicating the market is pricing in the persistence of supply shortages.
If the Strait of Hormuz resumes smooth traffic and LNG spot prices fall, IV will compress rapidly—eroding the cost of holding calls at that time.
Watch the $10-$12 range as a support anchor, with $19 being the upper bound of analyst targets.
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