Ghost ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump talks tough again—these three lines are worth watching

The analyst's risky venture resulted in a sensational report over the weekend; the Strait of Hormuz is not simply a matter of "open" or "closed," but rather a transition from international waters to being under the "sovereign management" of the nations on both sides of the strait. This research, akin to a battlefield investigation, reveals a situation where politics is performing a show while the private sector does business, further validating the long-discussed trend of global multipolarity. Current news coverage is dominated by the US narrative, but this on-the-ground investigation has given Iran a reversal.
Today, let's talk about facing this thorny wasp, will Trump TACO tonight? And the investment opportunities under the current undercurrents.

To successfully do business, you must cross the strait; to cross the strait, you must abide by Iran's "rules." Iran, long immune to sanctions, has used the card of the Strait of Hormuz to carve a path for itself. What does this mean? First, Iran does not want to truly halt shipping, as that is its bargaining chip. Using it would instead put it at a disadvantage in terms of economic management, leading to chaos and irrationality. In this situation of being half-open and half-closed, oil prices can still be contained within certain boundaries without breaking through, while giants with large oil reserves hold significant profit-making opportunities.
Second, the report shows that countries currently granted passage rights include: China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, France, and Japan, totaling 10 countries. Bloomberg data later partially confirmed this: 21 ships passed through the strait last weekend, the highest single-day number since the war began. The ships passing through the strait belong to countries including allies of the US, proving they are not waiting for Trump to rescue them. Instead, they have taken action themselves. "Sir, times have changed." There is a phrase here that is very suitable for responding to Trump's talk of "victory," "takeover," and "elimination."
Therefore, Trump's threat of "eliminating Iran overnight" appears even more aggressive in this context, giving a sense of desperation. The threats of "deadline tonight at 8 PM" and "Power Plant Day + Bridge Day" are essentially a strategy of maximum pressure negotiation. However, truly destroying Iran's civilian infrastructure would trigger war crime accusations and cause global oil prices to spiral out of control. Also, don't forget that Iran is a proxy for the Houthis, and the Strait of Mandeb is still a variable. This will also affect the midterm elections in seven months, which is even more related to Trump's actions in his remaining term. These constraints are real. He is bargaining, not declaring war. In fact, he has already extended the deadline multiple times, so he himself knows the consequences of actually bombing them.
Facing Iran, this tough nut, coupled with constraints from oil prices and politics, Trump is likely to TACO again. So what happens after TACO? Under the long-standing US-Iran dispute, the chance of the Strait of Hormuz opening safely is slim, but the world economy cannot stop turning. Iran, acting rationally, still needs to interact with other countries, and with many countries needing passage, will the current shutdown of AIS and the "shadow proxy" like "ghost ships" eventually be brought to the table and institutionalized in the long run?
Optimistically, if Trump doesn't want Iran to collect tolls, he can only find an excuse to step down, achieve a complete ceasefire, and secure the safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Pessimistically, he takes the path of extreme destruction of Iran, but as just said, there's a high likelihood of TACO.

If TACO really happens, oil prices are expected to show a downward trend, then V-shaped reversal amid negotiation deadlock. However, the market's reaction to TACO might be similar to Iran's near-immunity to sanctions, with the V being a high-level V.
Meanwhile, among various scenarios, a stalemate between the two sides is the most likely, meaning oil prices, natural gas prices, etc., will remain high. Simply picked three lines.
First, you can refer to Citrini's positions—they are long not on near-month crude oil contracts, but on December WTI far-month contracts $Us 12 Mthn Oil(USL.US) . For more direct stock targets, look at $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) . Heavily held by Buffett, a US domestic shale oil producer, where every dollar increase in crude oil directly reflects in profits, and it does not rely on Hormuz passage—the US produces its own oil, no need to cross the strait. However, Monday's trading volume showed market caution and accumulation.
Second, focus on US LNG $Cheniere Energy(LNG.US) . Iran's missiles damaged Qatar's LNG-related facilities, interrupting this major natural gas hub. Repairs are estimated to take about five years—this is a permanent gap completely independent of whether Hormuz is open or not. Australia has no surplus supply, Asian buyers can only pay high prices to compete for flexible US spot cargoes, and European buyers are directly crossing the Atlantic to buy. Under supply and demand, prices naturally rise. Currently in a high-level adjustment phase, in a profit-taking stage, but the upward trend driven by the five-year gap remains unchanged.
Third, focus on gold. Among the ten countries granted passage rights, many obtained their qualifications using RMB or non-USD channels. The transformation of Hormuz from "freedom of navigation" to an "Iranian toll booth" publicly erodes the dollar's oil pricing power. Gold is the most direct beneficiary of this trend, and a ceasefire will not make this logic disappear.