Just don't be in a hurry. LLY is perfectly priced, while NVO is priced with zero growth expectations. LLY's advantage is that chemical synthesis for peptide preparation can be rapidly scaled up, whereas NVO's biological fermentation method is extremely difficult to scale. NVO's peptide production capacity will be a future bottleneck. However, LLY cannot expand production indefinitely either. Firstly, injectables have a filling bottleneck, and secondly, chemical synthesis causes significant pollution, so the government won't allow unlimited expansion.

If the main consumption in the future shifts entirely to oral drugs, to the point where almost no one uses injectables, it would be extremely unfavorable for NVO. This is because oral drugs require a very high amount of peptides, which NVO's biological fermentation method cannot produce in such quantities. For LLY, however, it's a positive development, as oral drugs don't require filling, directly solving the production capacity bottleneck.

Therefore, the future development direction for the two companies is: NVO - large molecule injectables + a small amount of large molecule oral drugs; LLY - large molecule oral drugs + large molecule injectables + small molecule oral drugs.

LongPort - 呆呆的企鹅
呆呆的企鹅

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) With this market cap and P/E ratio, I'm just watching to see how you'll jump! Eli Lilly, if you have what it takes, go for 1.5 trillion!

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