【260401】Blind guess on the current trend: With expectations of the war ending and the need for a market sentiment oversold rebound, the Nasdaq has seen a broad rally.

However, I believe the situation is not optimistic, and the current situation is far from the premise for ending the war.

1 I cannot believe the US is fighting for justice and world security, rather than for Iranian oil;

2 If Iranian oil is not controlled, then the US has made a huge losing deal, and the war would end soon after bombing Iran's nuclear industry;

3 The rise in oil prices, the fall in the stock market, and the impact on the future economy are all pressures Donald Trump is currently facing;

4 A difficult choice. If neither a ceasefire nor continuing the war can reverse the decline in Trump's approval rating, but Trump may harbor illusions and assess the impact on the midterm elections.

5 Both sides are trying to negotiate, but under extreme pressure, they are both vying for enough bargaining chips.

6 Psychological hostility has been completely formed, which cannot be resolved through economic means, only through war.

7 What affects the stock market is not just the war, but also many economic problems;

8 In an interview yesterday, Buffett said he thinks stock prices are not cheap enough yet and has no plans to enter the market for now.

In summary, I remain bearish, and the current market is still a short-term sentiment repair, also a brief rebound. However, my personal operating principle firmly prohibits going long during a decline, so I will not attempt to go long, even if I miss the gains. Rising oil prices, intensifying inflationary pressure, persistently high interest rates, and the stock market continues to be under pressure. Easing geopolitical tensions helps boost market sentiment but cannot influence macroeconomic factors. The market's sensitivity to liquidity, interest rates, and inflation expectations is far higher than to war news itself. If oil prices continue to rise, the risk has not actually disappeared.

As for the ARM short position I hold, I will add to it because the essence of its decline stems from a lack of substantive performance and expectation support. The rise in crude oil prices is merely a catalyst. That is to say, its decline is an inevitable outcome, only accelerated by external factors.

Rebound vs. reversal. A reversal is the confirmation of a rebound and the result of a situation completely turning favorable. Currently, it cannot be confirmed. If negotiations are ongoing and yield good results, then the rebound will turn into a reversal. If the war continues, it's just a rebound. The essence of Trump's news flow is to suppress the rise in crude oil and control the stock market's decline and panic, nothing more.

I will use real money to verify my thoughts. But this does not constitute investment advice; view it with caution. Rather than saying I'm judging the stock market, it's better to say I'm judging the various demands of the war parties and how Trump decides the next strategy. Trump also needs to choose between strategic outcomes and protecting the midterm elections. But there is another method that is also a gamble for him: using the rich results of the war to prove this war is correct, inevitable, and unavoidable. But this is also a gamble. I believe even Trump didn't anticipate the current war trend. Whether the war will intensify again depends on the news flow before next Monday.

No matter what, I will close the short position and enter a wait-and-see mode in the near future while ensuring profitability.

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