【260331】Last year's tariff war is repeating itself.

The market seems to be heading towards a one-sided trend, immune to Trump's psychological massage-style rhetoric, and also losing patience. Oil is moving towards explosive growth.

If the war continues, persists, or escalates, and there is no substantial progress in negotiations, I believe Wall Street's first choice is to exit for safety, or even bet on a bearish outlook. At the same time, as crude oil prices continue to rise, Europe and those countries dependent on imported energy will raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will be a chain reaction, affecting the whole world and triggering a bear market.

Last year's tariff war led to a one-month adjustment in U.S. stocks, and the tariff war was unilaterally initiated by the U.S., giving it absolute control. This time, the U.S.-Israel-Iran war is not entirely under U.S. control, which may lead to a continued slow decline in the U.S. dollar index for one to two months.

The U.S. stock semiconductor industry has seen a significant correction,)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) continues to decline steadily, $Micron Tech(MU.US) plunged after earnings, $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has been in a free fall for a week, falling 30% from its new high by yesterday's close. All of this indicates that AI is shifting from emotional belief to objective verification, and all of this will also seriously drag down the stock index.

Market environment + change in belief + panic sentiment + risk-averse profit-taking and stop-loss behavior + liquidity decline, all of this is catalyzing a bear market.

Therefore, I plan to make a well-founded risk, intending to buy a small amount and hold for the long term NVIDIA 260618 P 150, 140, and 120 put options at a reasonable time, betting a little on the bear market.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Arm(ARM.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)