西瓜呀
2026.03.30 12:39

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LongPort - 我的维他豆奶冻住了
我的维他豆奶冻住了

Bear markets with relatively large declines in recent years:

In 2025, from peak to trough, a bear market bottom formed in 47 days, with the S&P 500 falling 21 points.

In the 2023 bear market, a bottom formed in three months from peak to trough, with the S&P 500 falling 11 points.

In the 2022 bear market, a bottom formed in 11 months, with the S&P 500 falling 26.5 points.

In the 2020 bear market, due to the pandemic circuit breaker, a bottom formed in one month, with the S&P 500 falling 35 points.

In the 2018 bear market, a bottom formed in three months, with the S&P 500 falling 20 points. The Nasdaq's decline is typically about 25% higher than the S&P's.

Both the medium-sized bear markets in 2018 and 2023 completed within three months. It's been two months since entering the bear market now. If it's not a major bear market, the bottom might be reached next month (just a guess based on past patterns).

Regardless, buying the dip in giants and indices after a 20-point drop in the S&P is almost a sure win. Those with spare cash can deposit funds, stock up on ammunition, and get ready to bottom-fish.

For individual stocks, I prioritize bottom-fishing in Google, TSMC, and NVIDIA. The corresponding prices are unknown, based on the index decline. If the Nasdaq falls 20 points, I'll go all in on the stocks. If it falls 25 points, I'll add leverage.$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Apple(AAPL.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)

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