$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

I've been bearish on US stocks since January and have continuously avoided the big drops in February and March.

Standing at the end of March as the monthly close approaches, I have several outlooks for the future:

1 The market is still far from the bottom; once a trend forms, it takes time to reverse.

2 Even without the Iran war, US stocks need a major adjustment this year.

3 Our generation hasn't experienced a major bear market. During the two major US stock bear markets of 1970-1980 and 2000-2010, many stocks didn't rise for a decade. The 2013-2025 bull market made people think that as long as you invest for value, you can definitely get high returns.

4 The overall bull market in recent years has led to the emergence of a group of influencers, stock gurus who are highly sought after. Many of these people are skilled, but they overestimated their own stock trading abilities. It was actually the good market that allowed them to hold on.

These people will disappear during a bear market. Ask them, and they won't make a sound. There was no Longbridge forum in 2022.

5 The biggest advantage of retail investors is one-click liquidation. Institutions have too large positions and many restrictions; they have to stay in the market. The advantage of institutions is their quantitative capabilities. The most suitable strategy for retail investors is swing trading, not holding forever. Using your biggest disadvantage to fight the institution's biggest advantage, do you have a chance of winning?

6 Since we're talking about swing trading, it's nothing more than going long and going short. Short selling has always been looked down upon, which is a misconception. The win rate for shorting is naturally higher than going long in a bear market. Bear markets have many rebounds, but after each sharp rise (like Monday's TACO pump), the remaining four or five days see brutal declines/slow declines. Bull markets are the opposite; bear markets have many crashes, and after each crash, there are continuous rises.

7 First, you must accept the fact that it is a bear market now in order to make money.

8 This year's market is the Fire Horse year, with high volatility. Due to the political needs of Trump's midterm election, the stock market will inevitably be pumped to around 7300 points from May to August (the election is in November). The Iran war created a big pit. Currently, this pit doesn't look lower than 6140, with a potential extreme to fill the SPX weekly gap at 5786.

9 Since there was no rebound from Monday's TACO high of 6650 to Friday's low of 6368, and the RSI is extremely oversold (reasons in the previous post), there's a technical need for a rebound next week. Lower limit 6140, rebound high around 6480, maybe a bit better to 6500+. Especially with Tuesday's monthly close, there's a need for a rebound.

10 April will continue to fall, because no matter how Trump TACOs, this is a bilateral relationship. Iran's toughness exceeded his expectations. Every time a rebound pumps it higher, it's a good shorting point.

11 Individual Stocks

1) NVDA 166 is a good price, extreme low seen at 150. Buy on dips within this range.

2) META is likely to enter the 450-500 range, which is a good price range.

3) GOOGL 250-263 range, only after filling the gap at 263 will the technical picture be complete.

4) TSLA unilateral decline from 498-320, sold at 490 and haven't touched it since, 320-350 is considered a good price.

5) Not touching Amazon, 200 is actually a good price.

6) MSFT unilateral decline, there's support here at the previous low of 342.

7) SNDK likely to break below 500, fluctuation range 450-780, can only go short for the long term, go short when it pumps, if going long, take profits when good.

8) LITE has strong momentum, the main force is very strong.

Sometimes when sentiment is very poor, the stock price can also be below its intrinsic value.